Uncertainty and not pessimism or optimism is the feeling that seems to hover over the economic situation. This is not bad or good news but rather a skein of data apparently of the opposite sign relevant enough to make economic calculation difficult and project uncertainty in a medium-term scenario.
During the last two weeks there were a series of indicators that warned about the difficulties faced by a large part of the population. He Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) for February showed a 2.1% drop against the same month of 2025 and -2.6% in seasonally adjusted values against the previous month, ending a slight recovery since the third quarter of the previous year. On the other hand, private inflation projections for April mark a slight slowdown compared to March, but still far from breaking through the 2% monthly floor that was the ceiling a half-year ago. Eco Go, for exampleprojects 2.5%, facilitated by a smaller increase in food (+1.4%) but driven by the increase in fuel (+10.4%) but also by the continuous recomposition of energy and transportation rates. The twists and turns in the negotiations between Iran and the United States have a full impact on the price of oil on the international market: good news for oil companies and oil-exporting countries, but a threat to price stability. For now, YPF announced a unilateral “truce”, but if the value of the raw material continues in the range in which it has been since March, it will be difficult to contain the transfer to the supplier, unless the Government sacrifices part of the fuel tax, which takes a good part of the price paid by the consumer.
double rod. Precisely, tax collection has been falling in real terms: during the first quarter of this year it fell 7.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. In March, for example, VAT fell 2.1% year-on-year, also in real terms, mainly due to the stagnation of mass consumption in large urban centers, a characteristic of this entire period that is more than just a statistical coincidence. According to the report from the consulting firm Invecq, already in March “the leading indicators show a new recovery, with the sectoral and regional heterogeneity that the Argentine economy continues to show.” In February, for example (latest known data), the main falls in the EMAE came from the manufacturing industry (-8.7% year-on-year) and commerce (-7%), which explained most of the fall in the general level. “This sectoral divergence is consistent with recent dynamics: primary sectors and some services maintain better relative performance, while sectors linked to the domestic market continue to lag behind.concludes the aforementioned report.
The “two-speed economy” precisely shows the diversity among a productive matrix that is surpassing historical records at the same time that it is preparing to leverage this bonanza with the investments that are beginning to arrive under the umbrella of the RIGI. For example, as another report points out, IERAL, Energy once again became a driver of dollars for Argentina. “After more than a decade of deficit (2011-2023), the sector closed 2025 with a surplus of US$7,829 million; the change is not temporary: behind it there is a structural transformation of the energy sector”he emphasizes.
Both this boom and the one carried out by the mining sector, which already surpassed the previous peak in the first quarter of the year, with exports for US$2,406 million but official optimism projects US$36,000 million within a decade. Copper, gold and lithium are the main interest of multinational consortia with the participation of local groups that promise million-dollar investments. in these processes: US$57,000 million according to the Government’s forecast (with more than 70% destined for the exploitation of copper deposits).
Just as the province of Neuquén stands out as the largest recipient of investments in the area of oil and gas, the Andean provinces are the ones that benefit from this incipient mining boom and that is why they mark differences in the votes for the legal framework that they consider convenient for the development of this activity, differentiating themselves from the national party leadership and causing a peculiar productive axis of uncertain projection.
These two mega sectors, together with the agro-industrial complex (which, thanks to a record campaign these days, is collapsing entry to export ports) is what promises the influx of dollars that would break the virtual trap that is the chronic shortage of foreign currency in the Argentine economy. But, above all, it would take pressure off the exchange market so that the Government can fulfill its pending task, which is to accumulate reserves to be able to enter the voluntary debt market and thus lower the country risk that puts a floor on the interest rate and local credit.
However, two measurements made by the Di Tella University cast more shadows than lights on this duality in April: the Consumer Confidence Index at the national level fell 5.7% compared to March and the ÍTrust in Government Index It also fell 12.7% compared to the previous month. An example of the difficulties that managing this gap between the “two realities” will bring to the Government itself on the eve of an electoral year and in which “urban” realities may weigh more.
by Tristán Rodríguez Loredo
