Venezuela hard core – NRC

The position of Venezuelan authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro looks increasingly shaky due to rising tensions with the United States. In addition to the American attacks on alleged drug boats, which have already resulted in more than ninety deaths, Trump last week “a total and complete blockage” ordered from sanctioned oil tankers sailing in Venezuelan waters. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan opposition led by Nobel Prize winner María Corina Machado, who fled Venezuela last week, is already preparing for the transition to democracy.

Whether Maduro will soon disappear from the scene remains to be seen. But whether it would happen through a possible liquidation, arrest, US-enforced exile or otherwise: his fall does not necessarily mean that the regime disappears. The authoritarian Chavist regime has a hard core of several powerful people. For at least five figures with a lot of influence and money, the stakes are at least as high as for Maduro. Who are they?

Cilia Flores (69)Hawkish first lady

Maduro’s highly influential wife is seen as a hardliner within ‘chavismo’, the left-wing ideology created by former president Hugo Chávez, who died in 2013. Cilia Flores is a former president of the National Assembly and trained as a lawyer. She defended Chávez after he committed a failed military coup in 1992.

According to Venezuelan political scientist Miguel Ángel Martínez Meucci, Flores has a lot of power and influence behind the scenes. “She has been less in the foreground lately, and has mainly acted discreetly, but she is the powerful woman next to Maduro. She is accused of nepotism and corruption, and controls the large flows of money within the regime,” he says by video link from Madrid.

Sanctions have been imposed by the US against Flores and a number of family members. Two cousins ​​have been convicted of drug trafficking. This narcosobrinos (drug cousins) were arrested in Haiti in 2015 during an undercover operation by the American DEA, and sentenced to eighteen years in prison in the US. Then-President Joe Biden pardoned them as part of a prisoner exchange, and his successor Trump recently placed the cousins ​​back on a sanctions list.

Diosdado Cabello Rondón (62)Radical minister

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The Minister of the Interior is considered the number two in the regime and is one of the most radical ‘chavistas of the first hour’. “Diosdado Cabello is held responsible for the regime’s repression, which has been increasing since last year’s elections and the subsequent protests,” said political scientist Martinez Meucci.

According to him, Cabello has great power as Minister of the Interior, which also includes the ‘justice and peace’ portfolio. “He has practically free rein to order people to be arrested,” says the political scientist. Cabello owes his power partly to the fact that he was close to Hugo Chávez until his death. Chávez is still held in high regard by his supporters as the legendary founder of the so-called Bolivarian revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, the great liberator of South America from the nineteenth century.

Cabello was there when Chávez made his last public appearance. “That was at the end of 2012 when he went to Cuba for cancer treatment. Diosdado was then sitting next to Chávez with Maduro, which still gives him a lot of respect.” Sanctions have also been issued against Cabello; the Trump administration has offered a $25 million reward for the golden tip that leads to his arrest.

Vladimir Padrino Lopez (62)Powerful commander

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Vladimir Padrino López has been Minister of Defense since 2014. “Unlike Chávez, Maduro does not have an army background, while the army is necessary for the regime to stay in power. Maduro was a bus driver and rose through the trade union. So he handed over power over the army to Padrino López,” says Martínez Meucci. The minister is also commander of the armed forces, the president is the commander-in-chief.

The US and dissidents have been hoping for years, so far in vain, that Maduro’s power can be broken by wresting the army away from those in power, after which the military can stage a coup. Martínez doubts whether the current pressure can cause such an internal escalation. “Venezuela’s army is not very clear and transparent in its structure. There is no traditional hierarchy, for example we do not know how many generals there are, there are secret parts within the army, and the Cubans have infiltrated it,” he says.

For the time being, the army and Maduro appear to form a closed front; their interests in corruption, drug trafficking, mining, oil and food distribution are closely intertwined. “Suppose the US manages to pry someone like Padrino away from Maduro and have all kinds of promises such as amnesty, lifting of sanctions, money and security, then that could have an impact on the stability and structure of the regime.”

Delcy (56) and Jorge Rodriguez (60) Intellectual strategists

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Delcy Rodríguez has been Maduro’s official deputy as vice president for seven years and previously served as economy minister. Her older brother Jorge is president of the National Assembly, former vice president under Chávez and former head of the National Electoral Council (CNE). He has a key role in government propaganda and communications, and was Maduro’s campaign manager during the 2024 elections, in which the government unilaterally claimed victory. The opposition produced results showing that it had actually won by a large majority.

Brother and sister Rodríguez are the intellectual brains of the regime and have strong national and international contacts. Political scientist Martínez: “They are seen as key figures and are good at negotiating and doing business. Even now that attacks are taking place at sea, and the regime has never been under so much pressure before, there is most likely considerable negotiation going on and his brother and sister Rodríguez are involved at the highest level.”

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