If the sheaf cabinet is skilled in something, it is in creating political situations that have never been shown before. The newest unique: The entire NSC cabinets false left on Friday from the outgoing cabinet, after NSC could not agree with VVD and BBB about extra measures against Israel.
This has put NSC Nederland into unknown waters, because at least since the Second World War a party has never left a outgoing cabinet. Schoof himself spoke of a “separate political setting” on Friday evening. The Prime Minister has canceled a visit to Ukrainian President VolodyMyr Zensky to ‘deliberate’ how the government should go through in the coming days. On Friday evening, it was also not yet clear at his Ministry of General Affairs what to do in this confusing constitutional situation.
The most pressing problem is that nine ministers have resigned, including the important Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Social Affairs and Employment, and the Interior. Those posts are now being observed by remaining ministers, the cabinet announced on Saturday afternoon. Outgoing Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) already came in on Friday evening as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
BBB Vice-Prime Minister Mona Keijzer takes over social affairs, Justice Minister David van Weel (VVD) gets the Interior. VVD vice prime minister Sophie Hermans invades education, culture and science and BBB member Robert Tieman takes over public health.
Double functions
From a constitutional point of law there is nothing wrong with that, says Professor of Constitutional Law Hansko Broeksteeg of Radboud University, “Ministers can just observe each other’s posts”. But practically it can become unworkable. The elections will be in more than two months and after that it can take months before a new cabinet is taking place. All this time, hiding double functions would be a heavy burden for the sitting ministers. According to a Prime Minister Schoof spokesperson, consultation will take place in the coming days about how to proceed.
For the VVD it does not have to be a big problem to present extra ministers – the party has many experienced drivers. For the young BBB, on the other hand, it will be more difficult to find suitable drivers. How VVD and BBB, who are not really good, will subdivide the posts, will have to be apparent in the coming period. Both parties will think about how they want to profile themselves towards upcoming elections, and what difficult posts they don’t want.
Return a budget
The following problem: This Friday, the government must submit the budget to the Council of State, so that it can issue advice before Prince’s Day, the third Tuesday of September. That advice is a constitutional obligation that cannot be shifted, says Professor Broeksteeg. “Whether you are two or with three parties, and whether the cabinet is a missionary or outgoing.” Broeksteeg assumes that “a large part of that budget” should already be ready. The cabinet started last Wednesday, so this crisis falls in the middle of the preparations.
VVD and BBB only have 32 seats together. Unprecedented little, also for a outgoing cabinet. So they will have to get many other parties with their budget. How constructive NSC will be guessing is guessing, and the PVV leader Geert Wilders has not been willing to stand out a finger to his former partners since he got out of the coalition.
In a number of policy areas it will not be a problem to find majorities. For example, there is a broad consensus that higher defense kisses are needed. But on other themes, such as the very important nitrogen policy for BBB, it is not obvious that majorities can be found. VVD and BBB also disagree about this file: it is no secret that VVD members want to get rid of the BBB agricultural policy as quickly as possible.
Pro-Israelic
How the voter will respond to the departure of NSC in the Lower House elections on 29 October is still unclear. VVD and BBB will hope that they will be seen as the last of the four original coalition parties that continue to take responsibility in the cabinet.
It is complicated for the VVD that this ‘second cabinet trap’ is about the Dutch relationship to Israel. The party is pronounced pro-Israeli, and certainly party leader Dilan Yesilgöz has structurally stopped measures against Israel. But in recent months-in which the Netanyahu government has exceeded border after border with his genocidal violence against the Gazans-the criticism of Israel has grown at the VVD supporters. There is also frustration in the top of the party. Prominent VVD members in the group and the ministerial team say that they would like to be more critical, but that Yesilgöz in particular is stopping it.
Among the Dutch population, the views on Israel are shifting: in May, two in three Dutch people said that Israel went too far, according to EenVandaag.
The VVD still opposed the proposals of NSC minister Caspar Veldkamp (BZ) for sanctions against Israel on Friday afternoon. But outgoing Minister Brekelmans also said later that day that NSC ran away too early, and that his party does want to take new measures. Such as an economic boycott of illegal, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, but at European level.
Whether the VVD actually wants to be harder against Israel, or especially wants to put NSC away as runners, will have to be apparent in the coming days. It will also become clear whether the further dressed outgoing outgoing cabinet can still function normally. VVD and BBB will probably have to control the country for many months.
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Veldkamp itself became more critical of Israel, but ran into walls at home and abroad