A new decree signed by US President Donald Trump last week gives Pentagon approval of using military violence against Latin American drug cartels in Mexico, which are classified as terrorist organizations, so government sources.
“No plan for an invasion” – but threat remains
A Rolling Stone, who was familiar with the matter, confirmed certain details on the decree signed by Trump against Mexico, which was first reported by the “New York Times”. Other informed sources in or near the current Trump government say that this government is planning to attack the southern neighbor if Mexico Trump does not give what he wants. According to the government representative and other initiates, this is not a bluff. This US President wants to violently injure Mexico’s sovereignty. Whenever he thinks it is necessary. He had finally advertised it in the 2024 election campaign.
US government officials insist not to describe this as a plan for an invasion. A senior government official spoke about the new decree. “It is not a negotiation tactic. It is not art of the deal. The president has clearly said that a blow will come … unless we see some big, fundamental changes.”
This seems more like a mafia-style intimidation campaign with the alleged goal of force the Mexican government to solve America’s fentanyl crisis. But the threat to Mexican sovereignty is no less real.
Mexico’s concessions and Trump’s history of the threats
In response to Trump’s instructions to target drug cartels, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum refused to use US military in Mexico last week. At the beginning of this week, however, Mexico delivered 26 suspected cartel members to the United States from one step that General Prosecutor Pam Bondi celebrated as part of the “historical efforts of the Trump government to smell cartels and foreign terrorist organizations”. The fugitive are charged with various federal and state offenses. These include drug trafficking, kidnapping, murder and money laundering. Among the arrested are also leaders of large cartels such as the Jalalco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
A similar transfer took place in February when the Mexican government sent 29 anti -cartel members to the USA. Both deliveries followed the saber rattling of the Trump government. According to experts, these steps are attempted to prevent US military intervention. And to save ongoing trade negotiations.
Trump and other leading Republicans have openly threatened Mexico for years with a US invasion and cited the fentanyl crisis and the drug cartels as justification. The Republican Party and its leader speak openly about it. And treat it as if it were solid politics.
Terror lists and legal foundations
At an event at Harvard University in December 2024, Rolling Stone asked several Trump confidants why the then President-Elect and other Republicans talk about an invasion of Mexico. James Blair, now deputy chief of staff of the White House, seriously replied that Trump had “never” proposed an invasion. (At the end of January, President reporters said that he did not exclude the opportunity to send US special units to Mexico. “Could happen,” he said. “Strange things have already happened.”)
The government took the first step in January when the US State Department classified eight cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Including the Sinaloa Kartell, CJNG, the Northeast Cartell, the Michoacán family, the United Cartels and the Golf Cartell. The Salvadorian MS-13 gang and the Venezuelan Tren-de-Aragua gang were also on the list. This classification leads to US sanctions. Including to freeze assets, restrictions for financial transactions and prohibitions for US citizens and organizations. But Geoffrey Corn, director of the Center for Military Law and Policy at Texas Tech University School of Law, says that the terrorist lists do not authorize military violence.
“You have to argue credibly that the United States is exposed to an armed attack,” says Corn, a retired Judge Advocate Officer of the US Army and former chief advisor for war law. “The presentation that we are attacked by these cartels is crucial to use the president’s war powers.” (The terrorist lists also served as justification to move hundreds of Venezuelan migrants to a notorious mega prison in El Salvador.)
War as a tool – and its risks
Corn argues that the Trump government has already described migration as an invasion, so it was not a big step to see drug deliveries as an attack. He confesses that he could develop an argument that drugs are an attack that Mexico cannot prevent his territory being used, and special operations are therefore a proportionate answer. But is that a sustainable policy? The United States had already tried in vain in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to free themselves. With catastrophic consequences.
“It is very easy to move the USA into a war and very difficult to get out again,” Corn told Rolling Stone. And adds that there have been hardly any barriers for military adventures since the September 11 attacks. “It has become too easy to go to war.”
Trump, who was president of the election campaign, now seems eager to use the military as an all -purpose weapon. Finally, when using troops in Los Angeles to suppress protests against immigration raids. And now in Washington, DC after a group of young people supposedly beat up a government employee with the nickname “Big Balls”.
Secret plans, drones and special units
In November, Rolling Stone reported that Trump’s future government took a “soft invasion” of Mexico into consideration, in which US specialists are secretly sent to kill cartel bosses. Possible plans ranged from drone and command operations to air strikes against cartel infrastructure or drug laboratories to the use of military coaches and “consultants” as well as cyber attacks on drug bosses and their networks.
A former intelligence officer who pursues the topic says that the new Trump decree encompasses more than just the Mexican cartels. The focus is on disturbing cartel operations in the entire region. Even before the terrorist rating, US military and CIA intensified their surveillance flights against Mexican cartels. The drone flights are part of an ongoing wave of surveillance, which probably also absorb and decrypt cell phone communication near the southern border.
Military target planning is already underway
US officials say that since Trump’s inauguration in January there have been several meetings between Pentagon, White House and Secret Service Strategists in order to plan the use of the US military against cartels. The president and some of his top consultants personally requested targetists for possible drone strokes in Mexican territory. A source from the Ministry of Defense says that units in Fort Bragg are preparing target packages. Which unity or goals were not mentioned. Fort Bragg is home to both the Army Special Operations Command and the Joint Special Operations Command, which supervises Delta Force and Seal Team Six.
A federal agent on the southern border reports on an “extreme realignment” on cartel operations in recent months. In the otherwise often conflicting cooperation between the authorities, there was a noticeable level of cooperation. Including the exchange of intelligence information, with normally focused services focused on external threats.
Possible goals and symbol effect
If – or if – Trump decides to blow up something in Mexico in Mexico, he will be presented with a prepared list of options. This could contain goals such as high-ranking cartel bases, hiding places or drug production facilities identified by US intelligence agencies. Stefano Ritondale, a former army home service officer who is active under the name “All Source News” on X, says that the goal should be large and symbolic in an attack.
“Why the Mexican government upset about a chemist, arms dealer or money launderer?” Asks Ritondale, who today works as a Chief Intelligence Officer for the private analysis company Artorias.
El Mencho as the most likely goal
In such a scenario, the president – so people who have spoken to him about it – would want a goal that is so important for the operations of a drug boss that he could give a nationwide speech on television and emphasize the historical character of military action. Just as he did in the death of the IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
If Ritondale would bet, he put on Nemesio Oseguera, also known as El Mencho, the leader of the CJNG. The US government has suspended a reward of $ 10 million for information that leads to its arrest-one of the highest bonuses each offered.
“El Mencho is the only one for whom it is worth,” he says.
Other possible goals and antitrust structures
According to the Mexican government, one of the six cartels classified as a terrorist organization, the CJNG, is considered the most powerful drug cartel in the country. With estimated assets of $ 20 billion, CJNG achieves income from drugs such as fentanyl and cocaine as well as by extortion in the tortilla, avocado, lime and chicken industry. Benefinding and fraudulent timeshare business are also sources of income. On Wednesday, the US Ministry of Finance imposed sanctions against four people and 13 companies in Mexico due to Timeshaare fraud led by CJNG.
Another possible goal is Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar, an important leader of Los Chapitos. Known as “El Chapito”, the main business of this faction is located in international drug trafficking, especially with the smuggling of Fentanyl to the USA.
Effects and doubts about success
“The Narcos pay attention to this,” says Mica Treviño, operator of Cartelinsider.com, a website for researching the cartels. “The focus is still on their rivals. But nobody overlooks the fact that the USA revolves up and watch every movement.”
A blow against a antitrust boss would probably help to stop the drug flow across the southern border. Carolyn Gallaher, professor of guerrilla and paramilitary violence at the School of International Service at the American University, said Rolling Stone in January that a campaign for the “beheading” of the cartels would only trigger a successor crisis that would be solved by violence- and ultimately little would contribute to the achievement of the government goals.
“No matter whether you get someone off the street, there are countless that take the place,” says the agent near the border. “Will you adapt? Absolutely. Will you recover? Yes. You won’t stop operating.”