With a surprising customs break, US President Trump made it easier for the stock markets – but according to analysts, the economic damage has long been caused.
• Trump exposes tariffs for 90 days
• Sharpenarbar markets occur at times with Rally
• Experts warn of long -term damage
On April 9, 2025, US President Trump explained that the country-specific tariffs, which had just been imposed shortly before, were suspended for a period of 90 days and only the universal base customs of 10 percent during this period. The aim is to give the affected states and territories time for negotiations. However, China is excluded from this regulation.
The announcement let the Wall Street breathe a sigh of relief: The S&P 500 recorded a course jump of more than nine percent on Thursday, April 10, 2025, and the Asian and European markets also went up. But the positive reaction of the Financial markets may have been premature, my expert. Because the basic uncertainty remains – and have left traces.
Investors suspiciously: Analysts warn of long -term loss of trust
“Even if relief has become understandably relieved […]the pandora’s box has been opened in terms of political unpredictability, “wrote economists and strategists from Deutsche Bank Research in a market analysis. Although the announced customs break is a first accommodation of the US government, the average customs set remains at a high level. Optimistic, unless Trump announces further customs cuts and credibly dispenses with future retaliation. “The expert continues to expect a” significant increase in inflation “and an economic weakening.
US dollars under pressure: Economic shocks already visible
Not only the trust of the market participants has suffered – the macroeconomic effects are already noticeable. The US dollar, which had come under pressure after the original customs announcement, was able to gain briefly after Trump’s back, but then lost again on the ground. Chris Turner, global market strategist at ING, sees further downward potential: The dollar can continue to fall, “if it turns out that the shock reciprocal tall has harmed the hard data in US consumption and company,” he said, according to CNBC.
George Saravelos, global director of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, also sees sustainable effects in accordance with CNBC: “Even if the tariffs are permanently exposed to, the permanent feeling of political unpredictability has already caused damage to the economy.” Saravelos assumes that the recent events will change the global economic relationships in the long term: “Structurally, the events of the past few weeks in the upcoming negotiations with global economic partners will sustain – and that for many years. The desire to do strategically more independent of the USA will remain,” he wrote.
Shared markets in turmoil: Hope for long -term stabilization?
Despite all the warnings, there are also more optimistic voices. Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of the Portfolio Solutions Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, believes in the medium -term recovery of the markets. “We can recover.
Caron expects Trump to choose a “less heated or more moderate approach” in the future in order to achieve political success through negotiations. So far, the greatest burden on the markets has been the lack of communication. “The damage incurred is essentially a shock to trust,” said Caron. The latter prompted investors to request higher risk premiums – both for bonds and for shares.
It remains to be seen whether the current break actually leads to sustainable relaxation. However, investors and companies could also accompany the unpredictability of US trade policy in the future.
Editor finance.net
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