Trump mainly has reasons not to bomb Iran – yet it can feel like an excellent opportunity for him

Nobody knows what Donald Trump will do. There is a good chance that Trump does not know either. “I like to make the final decision in the last second,” he said when he was asked on Wednesday if the United States, together with Israel, would bomb Iran. This does not seem like a – or not just a pose to make Iran guess if and when the US president gives the order to bomb their most important underground nuclear installation. Trump doubts. Between his voter’s promise, the US to keep hopeless international conflicts outside and the small but attractive chance of playing a hero role at a historically favorable moment.

It does confirm the image of Trump as an impulsive, unpredictable, self -centered and influenced leader. The person who speaks to him just before that last second can convince him to remain aloof, or to unleash an unpredictable new war. One day the president calls for “total surrender” of the Iranian regime. A few days later, he lets his spokesperson shout things with the message that there is room for diplomatic negotiations. According to her for weeks makes a decision for the president.

Trumps supporters are deeply divided over the possible military intervention. America FirstFundamentalists such as Tucker Carlson (ex-Fox) and Steve Bannon (former advisor), especially influential through their podcasts, call Trump on domestic war hits and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Republican Trump cups such as senators Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz hope that he helps the Holy ally Israel and puts an end to Irans Nuclear ambitions once and for all. Proponents and opponents try to talk to him, by arranging visits to the White House, and via Fox News and X.

Mission

Trumps Isolationism is more image than reality, because he likes to impose other countries. Threatening with military intervention is not strange to him. But as soon as the first American megabom falls on the Fordow complex where Iran Uranium enriches, he has no control over what he is politically destroyed for himself.

Trump overwhelmed the political establishment in 2016 if the businessman who would tackle immigration. But he might won the Republican pre -elections by dealing with the part -time of moralistic foreign military interventions, such as the “endless wars” in Afghanistan and especially Iraq. Trump called the raid in Iraq in 2003, a decision by George W. Bush, “perhaps the most terrible decision” in presidential history. And its legitimacy that Saddam Hussein would have had mass destruction weapons, “a lie.”

Six weeks after the start of the invasion, Bush had given a speech on an aircraft carrier with a huge banner behind him with the words’Mission Accomplished. ‘ The American armed forces would then wage war in Iraq for almost nine years, spend an estimated two thousand billion dollars and lose four thousand soldiers. Not to mention the disastrous consequences for Iraqis himself.

Iraq is a collective trauma and a never -restored dent in the reputation of the US. Both Democrats and Republicans now recognize the fabrications and mistakes made to there Regime Change to achieve. Nevertheless, calculated Trump is now threatening to plunge into a Middle Eastern drama in a similar way.

There is currently no use of American land troops, let alone a full invasion of Iran or anyone ‘Nation Building. ‘ But a decision to destroy the nuclear program of Iran, so that it can no longer be a danger to the rest of the world, can be based on similar misconceptions and consciously inserted lies about mass destruction weapons.

Trumps own intelligence chef, Tulsi Gabbard, has said that Iran does enrich uranium, but does not work on a nuclear weapon. Trump loses her openly and claims the opposite. “I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuclear bomb.” He did not provide proof.

The parallel with Iraq does not stop there. Just as in 2003, a naive belief dominates that a short blow will be sufficient. It is uncertain whether American ‘bunkerbuster bombs’ can completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. And such an attack will in any case lead to retribution, for example on the tens of thousands of American soldiers stationed in the Middle East. Or with a terrorist attack in the US.

The Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei has given the Americans “irreparable damage” in prospect if they mix in the conflict. Destruction of its regime in Iran, What Netanyahu looks likecan also continue to destabilize the region. In this way Trump can end up in the same swamp as his predecessors.

Zoom in

The bombing of Iran is especially tempting from opportunism. The blows that Israel recently inflicted on Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Iranian air defense that the country can currently give back relatively little. Successive American presidents have wanted to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. General Erik Kurilla, the highest American commander in the Middle East, said earlier this month to the congress that there is now a unique opportunity, “if we have the courage.”

Moreover, Trump could not accept it if Netanyahu gets the honor of a – so far – successful military campaign against Iran. According to a reconstruction by The New York Times Has the Israeli Prime Minister always kept Het Witte Huis informed of his attack plans and Trump tried to keep him for months. In the night of the first shelling, Marco Rubio, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Interim-national Security Advisor, distanced herself from Israel’s ‘one-sided action’. But since the right -wing channel Fox News And people around Trump praise the attack, the president pretends to have a hand in it.

Shooting allies

The way in which Israel lures Trump to participate in his mission is more reminiscent of ‘Libya’ than ‘Iraq’. In 2011, France and the United Kingdom wanted to intervene against the murderous regime of the Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi, but could not do that without American strength. The United States under President Barack Obama followed the shooting allies. In what should only have been a fast air war, Gaddafi came to an end – just like a year later the American ambassador. Libya is still an unsafe mess. It proves that simple bombing is never without ancillary damage.

They also have Libya on their retina in Iran. Gaddafi, hoping to prevent foreign bombing, had given up his nuclear program.

As Trump, Israel decides to follow and bombard Iran himself, he runs the risk of ending up in the list of American presidents who cheated on the Middle East. The reputation of George W. Bush has been permanently affected by his choice of false pretenses. Barack Obama called the lack of preparation for the aftermath of the War in Libya his biggest mistake. Trumps predecessor Joe Biden choked in 2021 in the withdrawal from Afghanistan, after twenty years of failed American state build -up. That fear image makes Trump still doubt.

According to The Wall Street Journal is The American attack plan Already ready. Trump will not try to justify the bombing of Iran towards the United Nations or NATO. The question is even whether he will involve the congress. No matter how strongly part of his supporters act against this adventure, “the Maga movement will support Trump,” said Steve Bannon this week about Trumps Make America Great Again-Ant. “We don’t like it. Maybe we will hate it,” said Bannon. “But in the end we go in.”

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