In his State of the Unionspeech, Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “my preference is for the problems [met Iran] to be solved through diplomacy.” Although the American president emphatically kept open the possibility of armed intervention against Iran in that annual speech, he now has some explaining to do to the US. Trump – who promised not to get involved in new wars when he took office in early 2025 – has started a military campaign against Iran for the second time in eight months.
In an eight-minute video on Friday night, from under a white USA baseball cap, he defended his decision to engage in “large-scale combat operations.” What arguments did Trump make? And which voter groups does he serve or alienate with this?
argument 1Iran continues to work on an atomic bomb
In June 2025, Trump joined Israel’s war against Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which the West fears is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon. Thanks to, among other things, the use of American bunker buster bombs, the nuclear program was “totally and completely destroyed”, Trump boasted after ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’.
Three quarters of a year after the Twelve-Day War, Iran apparently poses a threat again. “They continue their evil pursuit of nuclear weapons,” Trump said. Talks to get Iran to abandon this were held on Thursday, but remained fruitless. “They continue to develop long-range missiles that can now hit our very close friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and soon the American homeland.”
With these types of arguments, Trump is responding to broad concerns in the US about Iran as a nuclear power. In a poll conducted by the AP news agency earlier this month81 percent of respondents said they were somewhat, very or extremely concerned about a nuclear-armed Iran. This applies not only to Trump’s own Republican voters, but also to Democrats and independent voters.
Trump likes short air wars, with lots of ‘kinetics’ for spectacular television images and without politically risky ‘boots on the ground‘. Still, he prepared TV viewers that “the lives of brave American heroes may be lost [..]. That often happens in wars. But we’re not doing this for now, we’re doing this for the future. This is a noble mission.”
Argument 2Iran is a danger to the region
If there are American casualties, the already unpopular Trump will be blamed. The same AP poll shows that many Americans distrust him when it comes to foreign military intervention. Only 27 percent of respondents trust him ‘completely’ on this point. Among Republicans, this confidence is higher at 60 percent, but here too there is skepticism: one in six voters of Trump’s party has ‘no’ or only ‘a little’ confidence in his overseas judgments.
These are voters who are Trumps’America First‘ slogan as: no more foreign military adventures. And certainly not in the far Middle East, after the US got stuck in drawn-out wars in Iraq and Afghanistan at the beginning of this century, which Trump himself likes to criticize as ‘forever wars’. This anti-interventionism within the Republican Party is loudly expressed by ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and former Fox News leader Tucker Carlson. Both may harbor presidential ambitions.
Argument 3Iran needs a new regime
At the end of his speech, Trump addressed the Iranian people directly. It should use this latest American-Israeli bomb shower to get rid of its hated leadership. “When we’re done, take over your government. It will be yours to get. This will, probably, be your only chance for generations. [..] Now is the time for action. Don’t pass it up.”
In many other countries, the Trump administration is not committed to good or democratic governance. Many loyal American allies in the Gulf region are also not looking forward to an upheaval in Tehran.
With his call for regime change, however, Trump mainly served a domestic audience: evangelical Christians, who make up about a third of the Republican electorate. Many of them believe Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been warning for decades that the ayatollahs could develop a nuclear bomb “at any moment” to wipe the Promised Land from the Bible off the map.
In his choice of words, Trump seemed to want to please these religious voters. For example, he called the regime in Tehran ‘heretic’ (‘wicked‘). And his “Department of War,” as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calls the Pentagon, dubbed the operation “Epic Fury” on Saturday morning. Just like the operation name ‘Roaring Lion’ chosen by the Israeli, a name with a certain Old Testament connotation.
The Pentagon boss adheres to a Christian nationalist movement within the American Reformed Church, which eagerly looks forward to the second coming of Christ in Jerusalem. To accelerate this kind of Christian Zionist end-time prophecies, various church communities in the US have been advocating for war with Iran for years because it would pose an existential threat to Israel.
Argument 4Iran is our archenemy
The majority of younger Americans do not necessarily see Iran as an enemy, the AP poll shows. To justify this new intervention, Trump gave a brief history lesson about America’s enmity with Iran.
He mentioned the US Embassy hostage crisis in Tehran (1979-81). The 1983 suicide attack on US Marines in Lebanon, carried out by jihadists with ties to Iran. He even mentioned the attack on the US Navy ship USS Cole in 2000 by the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda. Iran was, Trump stated without evidence, “aware of this and probably involved.” The terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, which also killed twelve Americans, were the work of Iran proxy Hamas, he recalled.
Presidents in their second term more often look for success abroad, because they are less successful at domestic politics. Trump also appears to be succumbing to that temptation, now that his party in Washington has achieved little legislatively. He himself will no longer be a candidate in an election. But if ‘Iran’ turns into a drawn-out conflict or greater unrest in the Middle East, it could further worsen the already dire Republican prospects in November’s congressional elections.
