Timothée Chalamet lost his Oscar favorite status after a statement about opera and ballet. On betting markets his odds fell from 70 to 45 percent.
The 2026 Oscar race was already considered decided – at least according to two betting platforms that make predictions every year about who will take home the coveted trophies. This year, the Oscar race so far has been surprisingly unspectacular and quiet. For his portrayal of the narcissistic table tennis player Marty Mausers in the film “Marty Supreme,” Timothée Chalamet was considered the absolute top favorite for the Best Actor award at the upcoming ceremony on March 15, 2026. However, this has now changed due to recent statements from the artist.
Betting markets predict Oscar loss
The Polymarket and Kalshi betting markets are known for allowing people to bet on anything imaginable. You can bet on the craziest things there, like the number of tweets Elon Musk posts per week or whether Jesus will return one day. Every year a betting pot is also opened regarding the winner of the Oscar for Best Actor. These bets have become increasingly popular over the years: in 2024 there was around 350,000 US dollars in the pot, in 2026 it will now be six million.
Everything was clear until the beginning of March 2026. Timothée Chalamet led the race with a 70 percent chance of winning, and the Oscar seemed to be taken. Recently, however, the mime spoke about the art forms of ballet and opera in a conversation with fellow actor Matthew McConaughey. He said that he would not participate in these because they are art forms that people are trying to keep alive “even though no one is interested in them anymore.” As a result, the previous Oscar favorite received a lot of criticism; He was accused of not being active for art, but merely for fame. The consequences were directly reflected on the betting platforms: Timothée Chalamet’s value fell drastically to around 45 percent.
Will Michael B. Jordan now win the race?
The Oscar race is now more exciting than ever, and a new favorite has emerged among bettors: Michael B. Jordan. The actor is also nominated for best actor for his double role as twins in the film “Blood & Sinners” and is now just a few percentage points ahead of the “Marty Supreme” actor.
In addition, Michael B. Jordan surprisingly took home the SAG Award for Best Actor on March 1, 2026. Although this is given less importance than an Oscar or Golden Globe, the award is still considered an important indicator for the Oscar being awarded.
So the Oscar race now has two favorites and is more exciting than ever. According to the betting platforms, these two are likely to decide the award between themselves – Leonardo DiCaprio, for example, who is nominated for his performance in the film “One Battle After Another”, has been in the single-digit percentage range for some time.
Whether a single statement will really cost Timothée Chalamet the long-awaited Oscar will be decided on Sunday, March 15, 2026 in Los Angeles.
