News item | 21-04-2022 | 12:00
There are currently no concrete indications of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands, but an attack remains conceivable. The threat level in the Netherlands therefore remains set at ‘significant’ (level 3 of 5). This is evident from the 56th Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) of the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV). Supporters of jihadism pose an important terrorist threat to our country, although the Dutch jihadists are not or hardly visible in the public domain. Attention is also required for right-wing extremism because a few young supporters may pose a threat. In addition, there are indications of further radicalization within the radical undercurrent against the corona policy. The threat of violence is mainly formed by individuals and small groups that may be susceptible to incendiary (online) conspiracy theories.
Jihadist movement Netherlands
The jihadist movement in the Netherlands has largely turned inward over the past two years. In recent years there have been fewer and fewer public expressions of jihadist ideas, both physically and online. This is partly a result of government intervention. Most jihadists in the Netherlands are part of physical networks. There is a small group online that is radicalising, apart from physical networks. They find their inspiration in the propaganda of ISIS, which continues to call on its supporters through official and unofficial media channels to carry out attacks independently.
In 2022, several people are expected to be released, both in the Netherlands and in other Schengen countries, who have been convicted of terrorist offences, including a number of men and women convicted of traveling to Syria and Iraq. While a large proportion of the detainees will most likely not make new plans for a terrorist offense after their release, some are likely to continue to pose a heightened threat after their release.
The threat from the jihadist movement in Europe has been relatively stable for some time. The threat in Europe mainly stems from single perpetrators and small groups or cells, which are organisationally separate from ISIS, but who are inspired by (the philosophy of) the organization. Relatively simple stop means are often used. The number of jihadist attacks in Europe in 2021 was significantly lower than in 2020.
Right-wing extremism
As also established in the previous Threat Assessment, within right-wing extremism accelerationism is the movement in the Netherlands that emanates the most threat of violence. Several hundred Dutch accelerationists have come into the picture online; a few may pose a threat. There appears to be a fascination for weapons on various online networks of this movement. There are concerns that individuals with this ideological background will want to join the armed forces or a shooting club in order to gain experience with the use of weapons. What is new is that the war in Ukraine can attract Dutch right-wing extremists, but for the time being there is little incentive for them to leave for Ukraine and join right-wing extremist groups on the Ukrainian or Russian side.
Anti-government extremism
In the Netherlands, the dissatisfaction with the corona measures was mainly expressed through the activities of an activist upper class and a radical undercurrent. Individuals within the radical undercurrent may feel heard and their radical behavior legitimized by statements from various people in the public domain, including some who use a radicalized COVID-19 narrative within the political discourse that contains many conspiracy theories.
Virologists make it clear that the risk of new corona variants has not disappeared, so that actions from the radical undercurrent can revive after possible new measures. In addition, agitators and conspiracy theorists will probably also focus on other social themes in which they oppose the government.