What starts badly does not necessarily end badly. This is the conclusion left by the employment projections published this Monday by the Ministry of Inclusion and Social Security. Every month the department led by the acting minister José Luis Escrivá diagnoses how occupancy is evolving during the first fortnight of the month. And, according to their records, during the first two weeks of October a total of 7,491 jobs, compared to the last two weeks of September. A negative evolution of affiliation that is not only possible to turn positive at the end of the month, but that in October the creation of employment will once again gain speed, after several months of clear cooling.
Employment is going through the driest phase of the entire year. The last quarter is traditionally the least explosive in terms of job creation and Spain faces October, November and December with the challenge of saving the maximum possible jobs gained during a spring of records. At the moment the results are positive, but with a bittersweet aftertaste. And jobs continue to be created, but in recent months the cooling – understood as each month it costs more to create jobs – is evident.
According to the recorded data, Spain was on October 13 with 20.8 million of Social Security affiliates, almost 7,500 less than two weeks ago. However, a bad start does not necessarily mean a bad month, as evidenced last September. So during the first fortnight, some 37,000 workers were lost and finally the month closed positively, with almost 20,000 more affiliates to Social Security.
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And for this October the script is likely to be repeated, according to the seasonally adjusted data that the Government collects. The seasonally adjusted data measures how employment evolves once issues specific to the specific situation have been subtracted. That is, the raw data is taken, a ‘statistical kitchen’ is applied and seasonal biases are eliminated. The idea is to look more at the trend than at the still photo.
And these predict a gain of 39,161 employed people in October, slightly better than the same month last year and three times higher than last month (12,921 employed). That is, the Government’s forecasts estimate that the labor market is picking up speed again. From May that, in seasonally adjusted terms, not as much employment was created. The complete data at the end of the month will confirm or not whether October ends up being so good in terms of employment and whether during the following months whether the acceleration was a flash in the pan or whether hiring is picking up speed again.