Who bets on the dollar loses. The phrase, armed as a defensive chicana by the then Minister of Economy Lorenzo Sigaut (1981) went to swell the list of failed prophecies in recent Argentine history. The end was the opposite and the one that did not believe won with the result: abrupt output of the “tab” exchange, subsequent devaluation and, once again, the dollar dragging prices generating another inflationary spiral. It would not be the first or the last time that the economic policy in which the dollar is attempted to tame the inflation rate. Is this what is happening, again at this time?
Memory
When the INDEC He announced an 2.2% CPI rise during last January, not only drilled the floor of this administration, but would have to ride at the same month of 2018 to find a smaller figure. Inflationary deceleration is a fact (20.5%) although the interannual rate is high: 85.4% for January. Undoubtedly, the commitment to force more the descent had to do with the reduction in the programmed devaluation: it went from 2% monthly to 1%, understanding that it would accelerate the convergence sought between the three variables: devaluation, interest rate and inflation. This convergence, even when it could be achieved during this year that is also electoral, would drag an issue that is whether the exchange rate is already delayed and will continue to go in that direction.
The criticisms of the “anchor” exchange policy are transverse, but are based on recent history. For him Martín RapettiExecutive Director of the consultant Balances and belonging to Cedes (Another target of the official fury), according to the analysis compared to other periods, distinguishes three stabilization cases: those that fail to stabilize at the beginning; those who do it temporarily (for one or two years) and those who achieve it last. “Milei’s plan looks more like a case of transitory success. With this level of exchange rate we walk to a deficit of external accounts; The BCRA has negative reserves and to float many reserves are needed. A higher exchange rate is required”, He concluded.
Why do you talk about the dollar delay? There are indications that, when coming much less than the average price and with expectations of following that trend, an imbalance could be projected in the external sector. At macro level, as noted Esteban DomecqPresident of Invecq, the current account in 2025 project that would be deficient: exports would almost not vary versus 2024 (and the price of commodities) will have to be followed closely, while imports could grow around US $ 15,000 million Given the economic recovery, the reduction of the official dollar, the elimination of the country tax and the normalization in its payment. In the second instance, the financial account would be positive again, assuming that the maturities with the IMF are “rolled”, net financing is achieved with the rest of international organizations and the dynamics of private indebtedness is maintained; but without covering the red account.
Exodus
Another sample button is that for 2024 according to official INDEC figures, the total expenditure of receptive tourism was US $ 3,020 million, while that of the issue was US $ 5,146 million, which showed a negative result of US $ 2,126 million. In 2024, Argentina received 6.2 million non-resident tourists (-8.4% year-on-year), while 8.3 million residents traveled abroad (+11.8%). With two very marked semesters (the first with a positive balance of visitors and the second with an inverse sign), the year 2025 already shows indications that the tourist balance will be taken into account again in the balance of services.
The summer balance with almost two thirds of the already advanced season, shows that the passenger departure. This month is high the level of payment of international trips with dollars, even with the elimination of the country tax, “since the MEP and Blue dollar continued below the value of the tourist dollar the last three months, a period where they were confirmed a good amount of reservations for the month of February ”, concludes Guido Boutet, Marketing Manager of Operator Travel Services. The Top 5 of the destinations for February: Miami, Río de Janeiro, Madrid, Cancun and Punta Cana. And in the national: Iguazú, Bariloche, Mendoza, Salta and Córdoba. The demand to go see Boca and River in their participation in the first Club World Cup, in June and July in the United States, exploded. According to taking off, searches for that destination on the aforementioned dates were quintupled compared to the previous three weeks.
Looks
Are we facing another importing boom and purchases abroad by a cheap dollar used as “inflation anchor”, successfully in the medium term but does not ensure macro sustainability in the long term? For the former Minister of Economy Orlando Ferreres, the big difference with other moments is that there is now no fiscal deficit and before it was financed with issuance or debt. “We are revaluing 1% per month for now and even the elections will not change, but then you will have to recompose,” he projects. As? Less stocks, replacement for the exchange rate, less withholdings or a combination of previous responses. In its calculations, the theoretical equilibrium price gives it $ 1,647 for FebruaryAlthough it warns that the base they have includes many years with a higher public deficit and expenditure. But it would be lower if this same value is projected, but with balanced accounts and greater capital income due to the increase in exports of the Muerta Vaca complex and mining: $ 1,200 shows the historical average of the last 150 years.
Some winds of official optimism blow for the expectations deposited in a soon export balance of the energy balance (which until 2023 was strongly negative) and even the president himself ventured that it could be an unpublished challenge: a change rate that without controls collapsed. The measurement it shows that during convertibility the dollar was worth $ 700, of course without withholdings or multiplicity of the exchange rate. For Ferreres, Thinking in these terms is adventurous when there is still a control that distorts the change market. Anyway, the path that those countries that had this dilemma took for the appearance of an unexpected source of exportable resources (such as Chile with copper or Qatar with liquefied gas) is to establish sovereign funds with very clear investment rules. The most successful is the Global Pension Fund of the Government of Norway, which achieved a 13% yield in 2024, equivalent to a record benefit of US $ 225,000 million) thanks to the ‘rally’ recorded last year in the price of the shares of The great American technology. The background invests income from gas and oil and is managed by NBIMentity attached to the Norwegian Central Bank, which reached a value of US $ 1.75 billion, 25% growth compared to the previous year. The equation is clear: greater income must finance future permanent expenses and thus relieve the treasure of that fiscal backpack.
Figure friend
Another economist of the “kidney” of the Austrian school is Roberto Cachanosky but that has the peculiarity of having preceded Domingo Cavallo in being chosen white of libertarian criticisms for a long time. One of his main questions to economic policy has to do with the control of changes generated by the shortage of dollars and that finally derives in the stocks. “All economists know, with different arguments, that the dollar is cheap in Argentina and I think this issue is perceived as a problem and puts them nervous ”, He warned.
In the case of María Castiglionidirector of C&T Economic Advisorspoints out that in the case of countries that come from very high inflation processes, stabilization or anti -inflationary plans included a package of measures, where the key here is the fiscal part and where Argentina has always failed. “Most of them, not only Argentina, used the exchange rate or some exchange scheme, tend to be very dollarized or look at the exchange rate and in the short term exchange volatility, say, attempts against the decline in inflation,” Continue. In his opinion, the fact that the weight, or there is no confidence in the currency, leads to the movements in the exchange rate impacting the stronger prices than at other times or in other periods. “It is the experience that helps you lower inflation faster. Now, one could choose to fix the exchange rate directly, or what rhythm of crawling pork can be followed and, obviously, how much less it is (such as 1%), it helps to converge faster inflation down than 2 to 2 %. Obviously fix it would be completely the most efficient end, but if inflation takes to lower, the real exchange rate, (nominal exchange rate adjusted by international and domestic inflation), tends to appreciate, a very difficult dynamic to sustain in Time, ”he closes. In short, that is the discussion of these days, clear the qualifiers and Chicanas.
Now with the 1% scheduled devaluation it will be a challenge to see what happens with inflation, at what rhythm is converging closer to that 1%. “In the short term it is sustainable to the extent that the supply and demand of dollars, does not lead you to a problem of loss of reserves or expansion of the gap, which is what will mark sustainability in the short term ”anticipates.
For its part, Fernando Marengo Chief economist of Blacktoro He points out that, as a consequence of the Argentine history and the need for tax adjustment and exchange stability, competitiveness cannot be sought, as the other countries of the region do, because in Argentina it is immediately passed to inflation. “If you think about how to achieve competitiveness, you have to achieve it in another way and an anti -inflationary program demands exchange rate stability as an exclusive condition, ” judgment. “If there is not this stability of the exchange rate, inflation does not lower, but that also generates other problems and challenges, which must be solved in another way ”, concludes. Tweets and anger apart, while economists of all alignment continue to discuss the figures will tilting the balance in the discussion. Once again, the pressed between the dollar and inflation monopolizes the horizon.
