In Argentina, the economy is usually a literary genre: sometimes drama, sometimes farce, almost always tragicomedy. The Minister of Economy, Luis “Toto” Caputohe decided to contribute his chapter with a phrase worthy of manual: he promised in a streaming that he would sell “up to the last dollar” to defend the ceiling of the exchange band. A statement that sounded heroic, as if it were a general willing to die in the trench. But the epic lasted what a coffee in the City: the next day, the Central Bank had to part with US $ 678 million of reservations to contain the exchange rate. Twenty -four hours before US $ 379 million had been. The balance of the week: more than US $ 1.1 billion on three wheels. With such bleeding, to the rhythm of Caputo the last dollar will be seen earlier than expected.
The problem is not the phrase, but reality. He Official dollar It is already sold to $ 1,515in a context where no currency is achieved for less than $ 1500 in any bank. The wholesaler flirts with the roof of the band at $ 1475, and every time the market touches it knows that there will be a generous offer. It’s like playing the roulette with other people’s chips: investors are committed to calm, because they know that the Crupier is the state itself.
He country riskMeanwhile, he overcame the 1,500 pointsthe second highest in the region behind Venezuela. Translated: It is increasingly expensive to borrow outside, just when the government needs fresh dollars. The paradoxical thing is that Milei had started the year with a dried orthodoxy speech and today the economy is sustained with a control mechanism that makes water everywhere. It is like preaching the free market and at the same time sustain it with artificial respirator.
Some economists close to the president recommend eliminating the bands and let the dollar float freely. It would be the most consistent with the libertarian ideology: that the market says to how much the currency is paid, although that means an immediate leap. But politics puts the tail: with elections in October, no one in Balcarce 50 is willing to validate a devaluation that would impact prices and spray any electoral expectation. Better to continue selling reservations and wait for a miracle, as if trust was printed along with the tickets.
The president, faithful to his style, prefers to blame the “political panic” and the opposition to torpedo the economic course. There may be something true: the two recent defeats in Congress weakened the ruling party. But reducing the exchange crisis to an opposition plot is like blaming the thermometer for fever. The markets also look at reality: reserves that strive, bonds that fall, actions that collapse and a government that declares with an epic tone what the numbers insist on denying.
The irony is that Milei came to power promising discipline and control. During the first months it seemed to get it: the zero deficit and some exchange calm gave air. But now, with the inflation that does not yield and the dollar hunched by force of liquidating reservations, the ruling party is more like those governments that criticized so much. The slogan of “Until the last dollar” reminds other grandiloquent slogans of Argentine politics: they sound firm, but they age badly.
The dilemma is evident. If Caputo insists on defending the band, every day he will lose more reservations and more credibility. If you leave it, the exchange leap can accelerate inflation and dynamit Milei’s political capital in full campaign. In the middle, the real economy is adjusted alone: the Card dollar brushes the $ 1970the Blue is negotiated at $ 1520 and the gap bothers again.
In the end, what should be a stabilization program became a reality: every day the Argentines look at how many millions they left and bet if the “last dollar” arrives before the elections or later. The only sure thing is that, as always, the invoice is paid by people with higher prices and more uncertainty.
Perhaps the real problem is not how many dollars remain in the coffers of the central, but how trust The government has left to support a scheme that looks more unsustainable. Because in economics, unlike ministerial streams, slogans do not reach. And the final irony is brutal: Caputo promised to sell to the last dollar, but what is evaporating much faster is credibility.
