Tesla CEO Musk is dampening expectations for his company’s future products. Considerable teething problems are to be expected with robotaxi and humanoid robots.
• Elon Musk warns of painfully slow production start at Cybercab and Optimus
• Volume production of the Cybercab is scheduled to begin in Texas in April 2026
• Robotaxi designed as a two-seater without steering wheel and pedals
Complexity slows down ramp-up
In a post on Platform X on January 21, 2026, Musk responded to a post about upcoming Cybercab production. In it he warned that the speed of production is inversely proportional to the number of new parts and production steps. Almost everything about Cybercab and Optimus is new, which is why the early production rate will initially be painfully slow. In the long term, however, it will become “incredibly fast”.
With the important caveat that initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve.
The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportional to how many new parts and steps there are.
For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production…
– Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 20, 2026
As Musk announced at Tesla’s general meeting on November 6, 2025, Tesla plans to begin volume production of the Cybercab in April 2026 at the Texas Gigafactory. The vehicle is designed as a two-seater without manual controls. It has neither a steering wheel nor pedals and is intended to operate completely autonomously. Musk said the production lines should be able to produce a vehicle every ten seconds once fully ramped up. He named two million units as his annual goal.
Parallels to “Production Hell”
Tesla has already experienced such teething problems in the past. When the Model 3 was ramping up in 2017, the company went through a phase that Musk himself described as “production hell.” At that time, Musk and other employees slept on the factory floor to manage the mass production of the entry-level model.
The Cybertruck also caused significant manufacturing problems for the manufacturer. The unusual design with a stainless steel body proved extremely difficult to scale. Musk admitted in 2023 that Tesla had dug itself a grave with the Cybertruck design. The vehicle also serves as a reminder of overly ambitious production goals: While Musk once aimed for 250,000 Cybertrucks per year, Tesla sold around 20,200 units in the USA last year, according to Cox Automotive.
Robotics as a hope for growth
In addition to the Cybercab, the humanoid robot Optimus is also expected to enter production towards the end of 2026, with a target of one million units per year, as Musk announced in the Q3 earnings call on October 22, 2025. The first production lines are currently being installed. Musk described the project as a key part of the company’s long-term strategy, which could one day surpass the vehicle division.
The focus on robotics and autonomous driving comes at a time when Tesla is struggling with declining vehicle sales. According to a company announcement dated January 2, 2026, Tesla delivered around 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. This corresponds to a decline of around 16 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. For the full year 2025, Tesla recorded falling sales figures for the second year in a row with around 1.64 million deliveries. Competitor BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest manufacturer of pure battery vehicles for the first time, with 2.3 million electric vehicles sold.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net
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