BERLIN (dpa-AFX) – According to a study, the use of autonomous buses and taxis could be used to expand local public transport offerings in the next few decades – and in this way ensure shorter travel times and distances to the next stop. Given the shortage of drivers, the technology would be needed to be able to expand the offering.
In the best case, it could take five to 13 minutes to get into the autonomous vehicle, according to the study commissioned by the regional rail transport subsidiary DB Regio. Without the expansion of public transport with autonomous technology it would be seven to 26 minutes. “The travel times would be similar to those in a private car.”
The study was prepared by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the software and traffic planning company ioki, the German Aerospace Center and Prognos AG. The “Mobility in Germany” studies from 2017 and the Mobility Panel from 2022/2023 served as the data basis for estimating the future traffic behavior of users.
Several scenarios for the year 2045
The authors have designed several scenarios with a view to the integration of autonomous vehicles in local public transport, all of which relate to the year 2045. In the basic scenario, the regular bus services organized by the states and associations would be operated entirely by autonomous buses. Additional offers such as robotaxis or autonomous on-demand transport were not taken into account.
Compared to the status quo, this would hardly improve anything – regardless of whether it is about traffic in big cities and towns or in the countryside. Neither the distance to the next stop nor the time to get on would be noticeably shortened. Only the actual travel time would be significantly shorter, but still longer compared to individual transport with your own car.
The public services scenario performs best
The so-called public services scenario would bring the greatest improvements. The existing public transport offering would not only be replaced with autonomous vehicles, but would also be comprehensively expanded. The scenario includes a nationwide, autonomous on-call bus service and a new tariff structure.
This scenario would bring significant improvements, especially for users in rural regions. The distance to the next stop would be almost halved. The travel time would still be longer than with your own car. But compared to the status quo, it would mean a significant reduction.
“We can derive the greatest benefit from this if we fundamentally further develop public transport and expand the offering – with autonomous shuttles, optimized bus routes and a connection to the train,” said Frederik Ley, Road Director at DB Regio./maa/DP/men