The international trade war unleashed by American President Donald Trump has so far only had a limited impact on the global economy. “Everything indicates that the global economy has generally proven to be resilient to acute shocks,” International Monetary Fund (IMF) CEO Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday. In a speech, she looked ahead to the fund’s new estimates next week.
Six months ago, Trump announced for numerous countries import duties On. Experts around the world feared that this would likely lead to an economic recession in the United States, with negative consequences for other countries. But that doom and gloom image has not come true, according to Georgieva. “Instead, the US economy and many other developed and emerging markets, as well as some developing countries, have held up.”
The IMF will only announce what the exact estimates look like next week. Georgieva has already stated that the fund is counting on ‘only a slight slowdown in global growth. According to her, this is partly due to the rapid intervention of entrepreneurs. “Companies have accelerated import orders in anticipation of tariff increases and reorganized their supply chains.”
Georgieva, who did not mention Trump’s name, also said that the government in Washington later postponed many announced tariffs and gave room for negotiations. As a result, the levies were lower than initially announced. Furthermore, according to the Bulgarian, it is not unimportant that the financial conditions remained favorable. “Spurred by optimism about AI’s productivity-enhancing potential, global stock prices are soaring.”
Yet the IMF CEO does not want to celebrate too early. She continues to encourage governments to continue reforms and getting their budgets in order. According to her, this is the case ‘exceptionally high uncertainty’ in many areas. As far as tariffs are concerned, the full effect has yet to unfold, she thinks.
If inflation in the US suddenly rises sharply, this could have broader consequences, according to Georgieva. The same applies to a sudden correction in the stock markets. The IMF sees the debts is also continuing to increase in the world. Governments spend more money on interest payments, while less money remains for development aid, for example.