The analysis of the commitments of the teams fighting for the scudetto until the end of January: 7 big matches, including the direct clash between Chivu and Conte on 11 January
Four on the run for the win? So it would seem. Inter (33), Milan (32) and Napoli (31), plus Roma (30) who caught up with the leading group last night after the 1-0 at Como. The 4×4 championship should not escape this narrow circle enclosed in three points. Whether the discussion is closed for the other suitors, for Juve in recovery, for Bologna and Como who are losing ground, remains to be seen. Eight points, the distance from Italiano to Chivu, is a lot, but last year, still in fifteenth, Roma were -18 from the top: with the treatment Ranieri finished fifth. This remains the season of discontinuity.
Serie A, the championship race
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Today Inter leads, for the first time alone, after sharing the lead with Roma in the eleventh. In fact, first place changed hands in every round, excluding the eighth-ninth matchdays (Naples and Rome) and the thirteenth-fourteenth matchdays (Milan and Naples). Something will happen between now and the end of January, for sure, with seven “hot” rounds and the Champions League group to complete. The ranking will fall apart, it will be difficult for the group to remain compact. The turning point may come in less than a month.
when inter-napoli is played
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Appointment at San Siro on January 11th: Inter-Napoli. The first two of the last championship, decided by one point on the last day. The big match. For Chivu and Conte it may not be unprecedented: on 22 December in Riyadh there will be, if necessary, the Super Cup final, Bologna and Milan permitting. But a championship clash inevitably has other meanings. Then the Super Cup will influence the legs and minds of the four “Saudis”, forced to recover the seventeenth matchday in mid-January in a midweek round. Finally there is the calendar which is starting to get interesting.
Inter, Roma and Napoli: the fixtures
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That of Inter and Roma, between now and January 11th, is certainly more complicated. Upon returning from Arabia, there are two direct clashes for the Nerazzurri: Atalanta away from home (perhaps without Lookman and Kossounou in the Africa Cup of Nations), Bologna at home. Plus Parma in the middle. Roma are worse: Juve are at the Stadium on Sunday, then also Atalanta (away) and Sassuolo (Olimpico). On paper, Napoli’s commitments are less risky: Cremonese and Lazio out, Verona at Maradona. Conte is currently two points behind: the objective is to recover the gap, also finding some injured players.
AC Milan matches in January
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Allegri can take advantage of the situation. Milan’s calendar is apparently the least prohibitive: Verona at home, Cagliari away, Genoa at San Siro and Fiorentina, who knows in what conditions, in Florence on the same day as Inter-Napoli. Four not impossible games. But “apparently” is an appropriate adverb, given that the Rossoneri do better against the big teams. It will be good to change the register, because on January 15th, when the lost match is made up, Allegri will go on a trip to Lake Cesc, while Chivu and Conte, hosting Lecce and Parma, will have three points within reach.
Serie A, who will be champion in the winter?
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Just to go into detail: Milan and Napoli could also win nine points out of nine, appearing on January 11th at 41 and 40 respectively. Roma, with less relaxing commitments, could be at 38. Inter, who will go to Bergamo against Atalanta relaunched by Palladino, will have a few more problems: 40 points is a realistic goal. Simple sensations, of course. However, Inter is the team with more alternatives on the bench, pace and solutions in front of goal. Today at least. Napoli seemed to have overcome the crisis, now some discussions will have to be reviewed after the double defeat against Benfica and Udinese.
the commitments of the big league teams in January
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In the second half of January, the Champions League could give Milan an energy advantage: however, the Rossoneri have Roma and Bologna away. Inter are better, between Lecce, Pisa and Cremonese, but Arsenal and Borussia will fill the thoughts: it is forbidden to fail to directly qualify for the round of 16. Napoli are worse, challenged by Sassuolo, Juve and Fiorentina and forced to score points with Copenhagen and Chelsea to avoid losing out on Europe. Ditto Roma: Turin, Milan and Udinese in the championship; Stuttgart and Panathinaikos in a Europa League with everything to gain; and the Italian Cup with the Granata. At the beginning of February the ranking will be different. Who knows how much. So the real prediction is this: any prediction is a gamble.
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