There are certain cycles on the stock market, which are usually passed through within the year. These can usually also be justified.
For example, the last quarter of the year is often noticeable due to rising notations, while the start of the new year is often shaped by an inconsistent trend in January and February. In the first half of March there is often a weakening, which is replaced by an intermediate rally, which in many cases extends until the end of April. From May, the old stock exchange saying “Sell in May” is and draws attention to a weakness tendency that extends until the end of June. In July there is often an interim recovery before going down a little more clearly in August and September. As far as the “normal” year. Deviations on this depend on whether it is an election, post-election, intermediate selection or area code. This raises the question, how is it going now?
Trump continues to ensure chaos!
This year, a “continued Trump-Rally” was observed in January and February, which is gradually tilting and disappointing. The old stock market wisdom “Sell in May” could therefore come true this year in April. According to the latest losses, the actually friendly section in April could therefore show up at the end of March. The interaction of various indicators is interesting in this context. This makes it easier to see whether the market will currently be more or less followed by the seasonal curve.
The mood does it!
The mood of the market participants has reached a low. As the mass is known to be incorrect, extreme values are often a contraindicator for mood surveys. The currently bad mood after the latest losses on the stock market is therefore more of a sign of relaxation. However, since it cannot be assumed that the incumbent US President will quickly change his incalculable policy, it should probably only be a technical counter reaction. Afterwards, a further weakening would not be surprising from a current perspective. Only this year could not start this year!
Stephan Feuerstein is editor-in-chief of the stock market letter lever certificate trader. He has been dealing with the topic of stock exchange, especially technical analysis since the early 1990s. Info: www.hebelertifikate-trader.de The above text reflects the opinion of the respective columnist. Finance.net GmbH assumes no responsibility for its correctness and excludes any recourse claims.