This is evident from the new economic prospects of the Central Planning Bureau, which form the basis for the Prinsjesdag decisions of the outgoing cabinet and the calculation of the election programs of political parties.
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In 2025 and 2026, a purchasing power plus of 0.7 and 1 percent respectively will be drawn, according to the latest CPB figures. That plus is approximately the same for all income groups.
Pensioners are left behind
Only pensioners are left behind this year, but in 2026 it will make a catch -up. This fluctuation is due to the transition to the new pension system. The number of people below the poverty line is also falling in the coming year, but the proportion of people in deeper poverty is increasing.
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The purchasing power plus is not so much due to cabinet policy, but especially to the substantial wage increases that have recently been agreed in collective agreements due to the high inflation in the Netherlands. Also in the long term (up to and including 2030) a plus of more than half percent a year is taken by the bank in the books. The CPB also expects that inflation is decreasing something in the coming year.
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The Planning Bureau also assumes that the economy still shows growth figures. For this year, the calculation masters assume a plus of 1.7 percent and 1.3 percent next year. This is mainly due to many spending of households and the government. There is more uncertainty about business investments, among other things due to the still threatening rates of the US President Donald Trump.
Where the purchasing power and economic image looks fairly positive, the CPB is more concerned about the state of the treasury in the long term. At the moment, and also in the intended coming cabinet term, the budget deficit and the national debt still remain within the limits permitted by Brussels of 3 percent and 60 percent respectively.
Higher costs AOW and Zorg
But due to the aging population, which, for example, entails higher costs for the AOW benefits and care, that picture looks less florissant in the much longer term. Without adjustments, the national debt goes to 126 percent of GDP in 2060 (the size of the economy). And that calculation is still without the requested extra defense investments for the higher NATO standard.
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The 126 percent debt is an estimate. The CPB also takes scenarios into account in which the number is lower due to lower healthcare costs, for example due to cuts or technological developments. But there is also a scenario in which the debt is much higher because there are high costs due to climate change, for example in the form of a structural climate fund.