Of course it would happen again that a leader gives away such a big lead so late. But that chance, even prior to the competition, does not seem very great, says mathematician Sven Karbach. The assistant professor at the UvA (and great football fan) made a calculation model at the request of AT5. “According to my calculations, the chance that Ajax will become champion is roughly 81 percent.”
For that calculation, Karbach made use of, among other things, profit benefits of gambling companies and results from the past. “The gambling market knows a lot about football. Not every gambler is a large football expert, but we see that people who have more information at their disposal also dare to put more in, as you see in the stock market. It appears that this market is a good predictor of football matches and, as with shares, it is difficult to” beat the market. “”
Crucial
There is really really something to say about those opportunities for championships when the game against PSV will end next Sunday. We also see that in the figures from Sven Karbach, because Ajax wins, then the chance of the championship for Ajax increases to 98 percent, but there is only 68 percent left.
It is striking that with a draw (90 percent) the title chances do not differ so much from the chance that Ajax has when there is won. This is also apparent from figures from Opta data agency, which requested VI journalist Frouws. The title chances of Opta are similar to those of Sven Karbach.