According to a survey by the consultancy Opina Argentina, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta would prevail by a wide margin Patricia Bullrich if I PASS them were today. The Buenos Aires head of government would be the most voted candidate in the space with 18%, followed by the president of the PRO with 10%, and Facundo Manes would rank third with 4%.
So Larreta would win the internship in Augustand would become the candidate for president of Together for Change in the face of the October elections where -in the eventual absence of Cristina Kirchner as a space candidate- Sergio Massa he would appear as the main candidate in the Frente de Todos.
The referent of the Renovation Front would prevail Alberto Fernandez in an internal one according to the data of Opinion Argentina, the consulting firm led by political scientist Facundo Nejamkis. With a difference of 2%, the Minister of Economy would beat the President by 15% versus 13%.
And he would achieve, according to these same figures, a situation of parity against Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in October, both tying for 27% of the votes, followed closely by Javier Milei from Avanza Libertad with 24%in a virtual triple tie if one takes into account that the sample margin of error in the Opina Argentina study is 2.9%.
However, the scenarios for an eventual runoff vote all favor Larreta, who would beat both Cristina Kirchner by a margin of 12 points, like Javier Milei by a margin of six points, the same difference by which he would win against Sergio Massa. In all these cases the number of blank votes would be enormous, ranging between 21% and 28% of the electorate.
But the undecided portion, which would be around 6% in any of the scenarios, could tip the balance and even reverse results, leaving victory for any of the candidates by a very narrow margin. Except for the vice president, who despite having the support of the hard core of Kirchnerist voters within the Frente de Todos, she would not be able to overcome the ceiling of 35 points, given the enormous rejection of a very high portion of the electorate. She is only surpassed in fact in a negative image by the current president Alberto Fernández and the former president Mauricio Macri with 68% and 73% respectively.
Opina Argentina carried out between February 18 and 27 a face-to-face home survey of 1,250 cases at the national level with the objective of revealing the main tendencies of public opinion at the beginning of the electoral year. The characteristics of household surveys is that they present some methodological specificities with respect to telephone surveys and online or network collection systems. The main one is that household surveys collect information with greater precision on two difficult-to-reach social groups: the youngest segments of the population (the 18-29 age group) and the groups of lower socio-economic status.
According to those responsible for the work carried out, and compared to previous national surveys (carried out mostly through the combination of cases collected by telephone and coincidental face-to-face), this household survey shows differences in the distribution of votes in the Juntos por el Cambio primary, greater parity with the Frente de Todos and a growth of Javier Milei in his intention to vote.
Milei’s growth is explained by the greater precision of face-to-face surveys in gathering the preferences of voters under-29 years of age, a segment in which the Libertarian candidate is very strong. The greater parity between Juntos and the FDT is due to the fact that the data collection at the face-to-face level allows knowing in a more reliable way the opinion of the sectors with less purchasing power, which strengthens the voting intention of the Peronist coalition.
In summary, Opina Argentina’s national survey shows an even scenario in the different electoral scenarios between the FDT and JXC, with the opposition coalition registering a slight advantage.
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