The mood of the Netherlands, a month before the elections: gloomy, with low confidence in politics. Moreover, the number of topics that people are concerned about has been increasing for some time.
This is evident from the Continuous Research on Citizen Perspectives published this Tuesday, carried out by the Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCP). This survey has been running since 2008, is published several times a year and, in addition to political trust, also examines which (social) issues Dutch people are most concerned about. Because there are elections in November, the planning agency issued an additional election notice. Many political parties in The Hague read the SCP’s findings carefully, because it teaches them a lot about what concerns Dutch people.
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No restoration of trust
It won’t make them happy. Confidence in politics, which has been declining since the 2021 House of Representatives elections, is not recovering. The Dutch were not happy about politics, after the ‘April 1 debate’ about the note from the formation scouts that had said ‘position Omtzigt, position elsewhere’, the bickering between parties and the record-long formation of 299 days. While surveys previously showed a (temporary) increase in confidence with a new cabinet, this did not materialize after the formation of Rutte IV in January 2022. This was partly because the cabinet consisted of the same parties as Rutte III, a cabinet that had fallen over the Benefits Affair, with partly the same ministers.
Just before the fall of Rutte IV this summer, 42 percent of Dutch people had sufficient confidence in the House of Representatives and the cabinet. It now appears that these figures have remained virtually the same since then. “Confidence is low compared to the past fifteen years,” says SCP researcher Josje den Ridder.
What is growing is the number of topics that Dutch people see as areas of concern. “Until two years ago, there was a reasonable consensus on main themes,” Den Ridder continues. “There were one or two, for example economy and migration. Now people mention a whole bunch.” For example, Dutch people are now most concerned about politics itself, incomes, immigration, climate, coexistence and housing.
Voters have started to add something to this, De Ridder sees. “They mention this accumulation of problems and believe that politics offers no solutions. With every measurement there is a problem. First there was the housing shortage. After the start of the war in Ukraine, people started talking about rising energy prices. Then there was also the nitrogen problem. Then people started talking about the asylum problem. The list keeps getting longer, while people see that no problems are being solved because they have been solved.”
The functioning of politics
What has been a common thread running through the problems mentioned by voters all this time: the functioning of politics itself. “People have the idea that politics does nothing when it comes to all these problems,” says Den Ridder. “They think that politicians realize problems too late, later than they do. Consider the housing shortage. And once they realize that something is a problem, people feel that politicians are unable to solve it.”
For the survey, the SCP also asked adults about their expectations of a new cabinet. Despite the low confidence, they are still high. Because in addition to solving the long list of problems they mention, voters also believe that a new cabinet should keep the public sector up to standard. For example, health care and education are not mentioned in the list of problems, but they are when asked what the priorities should be.
Expectation management
Because voters have high and low expectations of politics, it would be wise if political parties were clear during the campaign about what their priorities are after the elections, the SCP writes. The planning agency calls “some expectation management in the campaign and formation not an unnecessary luxury.” From the report: “In addition to ideas, parties and politicians could also express where their priorities lie if there is not enough money to do everything, or where the limits are of what the government can achieve.”
Den Ridder: “If you look at public opinion, which is gloomy about the direction in which the Netherlands is going, it appears that the next dip in confidence is already in the making.” Since the fall of the cabinet, solutions to the problems experienced have not come any closer, says the researcher. “And recent years have taught us that these solutions are not easy. If politicians do not set clear priorities themselves, there is a risk that people will say after the elections: they promise a lot, but they do not deliver.”
Is there still reason for optimism? “Residents still think the Netherlands is a nice country to live in,” says Den Ridder. “They think they are lucky. But they also think that things could be better.”