“The instinct of the herd is strong. When the herd moves, it moves.” It is the most frequently quoted quote these days in London’s Westminster, the political heart of the United Kingdom.
The herd. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson (Conservative Party) mentioned it in his resignation speech in July 2022. And the crisis surrounding current Prime Minister Keir Starmer (Labour) this week is very similar to the circumstances in which Johnson was ultimately forced to resign.
Boris Johnson saw a procession of state secretaries and ministers from his government withdraw their confidence in him in 2022. There were as many as forty in one afternoon. Only at that number did it become clear to Johnson that his position had become untenable. The next morning he announced his departure.
Is Prime Minister Starmer’s herd already out of the starting blocks? “The herd is stamping and snorting, but has not yet moved on the scale that brought down Boris Johnson. Not yet,” wrote the news outlet Politico Tuesday. But that could change at any moment.
Starmer challenges competitors
On Tuesday morning, Starmer’s most important ministers spoke out in his favor after their weekly cabinet meeting. They tried to convey that they were going about the business of the day. “The country expects us to continue to govern. That is what I do, and what we as a cabinet must do,” Starmer had told them. He had also noted that no formal process had been initiated to challenge his leadership. And so he stays on.
In doing so, he seemed to challenge his competitors to start such a leadership battle. One of them, Health Minister Wes Streeting, attended the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning, but is said not to have had the opportunity to speak to Starmer about his position. The British media translated Starmer’s words as “put up or shut up”; Challenge me or shut up, as former Prime Minister John Major said in 1995 when he invited his critics to take on him.
According to Labor rules, a leadership battle will occur if a competitor manages to get 20 percent of the Labor faction behind him
According to Labor rules, a leadership battle will occur if a competitor manages to get 20 percent of the Labor faction behind him. With the current number of seats in the House of Commons, this amounts to 81 signatures. The number of parliamentarians who lost their confidence in Starmer had already risen to almost ninety on Tuesday evening. But these were all public statements against Starmer, not expressions of support for one other prime ministerial candidate.
There the resistance faltered, because the Labor faction is divided about how to proceed. Part of it would like to see Wes Streeting become Prime Minister. Another part wants to bring Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham back to the House of Commons, which would take more time. On Monday, the Prime Minister said he would not shy away from the battle for his leadership and would fight for his position.
King Charles delivers speech from the throne
About a hundred backbenchers released a statement on Tuesday in which they wrote that Starmer should stay in office. The results of last week’s local and regional elections were devastating, they concluded, and it will take a lot to regain the confidence of British voters. “That’s what we need to focus on. This is not a time for a leadership battle.” Labor suffered a historic loss at that election and never received so few votes in both England and Wales.
This is no time for a leadership battle
The comparison with Boris Johnson must be difficult for Starmer. The chaos and constant changes of prime minister were bad for the Conservative Party and for the image of politics. But Johnson also had important ministers from his core cabinet resign that afternoon. He even tried to reconstitute his cabinet and fill the gaps left by his departed colleagues, but that was no longer possible. So far, ‘only’ a handful of ministers and state secretaries from Starmer’s cabinet with smaller portfolios have publicly rejected him.
On Wednesday, King Charles will give his annual speech in the House of Commons, a speech from the throne in which he announces the new policy for the coming parliamentary year. The prime minister and his closest ministers will want to spare the king an embarrassing display and at least wait until the speech is over before resigning. But a herd remains a herd. Once it gets going, it’s almost impossible to stop.
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