Paris -Roubaix – advantage van der Poel in the duel with pogacar

At Paris-Roubaix, the Dutchman Mathieu van der Poel again meets his largest classic opponent Tadej Pogacar on Sunday, who for the first time dares to do the 55 cobblestone kilometers. The sports show analyzed the details that can decide on victory.

From a primary point of view, Paris-Roubaix is ​​a bike race that will be waved off on the second Sunday in April and is the part of the World Tour series. But this sober categorization does not do justice to this cobblestone patch spectacle. Paris-Roubaix is ​​one of the five monuments of cycling alongside Milan-Sanremo, the Flanders Tour, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Lombardy tour, it is also a spectacle, “a myth”, as race director Thierry Gouvenou says and because of its unpredictability and high level of difficulty, the queen of classics.

This Sunday it is time again and the organizers around Gouvenou were able to record a success before the start of the race. Because Tadej Pogacar will make his debut, probably the most exciting driver of the present, strongly in every terrain and in all races in which he participates, he is also the current winner of the Tour de France. The Slovenian Champion Pogacar will meet a number of favorites on Sunday, of which the formable Dutch last year’s winner van der Poel is the largest of all. On the pavés of the north, the epic duel of this spring between these two outstanding professionals for supremacy in the classics continues.

Milan-Sanremo won van der Poel in March, Pogacar finished third on the Ligurian coast. Pogacar won on the tour of the Flanders last Sunday, where Van der Poel finished third. In the collection of her monuments, Pogacar is currently in the lead with 8: 7 against Van der Poel. But what will happen on Sunday? An analysis.

The route

The race runs over a distance of almost 260 kilometers, the first 96 from Compiègne to Troisville over ordinary asphalt. But behind the café “Chez Françoise” it goes into the first of 30 cobblestone sectors to the finish, the Roubaix bike. Overall, 55 kilometers come together, a torture for the drivers and their material. The pavés are uneven, sometimes the tips of the stones protrude, there are grasses, moss and a lot of dirt on the route. No problem with dryness, but an unpredictable mix in the rain.

Pogacar has already driven the cobblestone passages last week, and like van der Poel, he will actively visit them again before the race. During his visit in the previous week, Pogacar put passage records on three sectors, supported by a moped as a pacemaker. Ultimately, that doesn’t mean much.

Because van der Poel also knows the course in the course of the race, he knows at what pace the peloton rushes into the sectors. Above all, however, he is considered a famous master of his machine in a bumpy, uneven terrain such as the Hoppel passages ahead of Roubaix. Van der Poel is a seven-time cross world champion, record, and a master of the site. Pogacar, on the other hand, is able to get tempo sharpening on a bumpy underground and to bring about, in February, for example, he already won the gravel classic Strade Bianche in Tuscany. But there the terrain was hilly and very steep and thus ideal for the best mountaineer in the present.

All in all, the following applies: advantage van der Poel.

Driver types

Van der Poel is heavier than Pogacar, which is generally considered an advantage on demanding surfaces. But Pogacar has proven several times that even a lighter driver like him can make a difference everywhere thanks to the enormous power of his legs. At Paris-Roubaix, however, he is a beginner, and there are also hard factors such as risky and wide shoulders on pavés on rapid journeys. In this area, strong Roubaix specialists such as van der Poel, Wout van Aert or Mads Pedersen have a clear advantage over pogacar.

All in all, the following applies: advantage van der Poel.

The weather

Finally prevailed “Ideal conditions, the course is in excellent condition”said race director Gouvenou during a tour on Tuesday. The paving stones were dry. But just for Sunday a change of constant, sunny spring weather is predicted. It should rain “And then everything is different, in one fell swoop”says Gouvenou. The sectors become slippery and therefore dangerous, falls are inevitable and the factor of luck.

The tax artist van der Poel, who introduces his cross-triumph on a mushy surface, loves these conditions. Thanks to his driver class, he is able to best survive all conditions on the pavés from all participants.

All in all, the following applies: advantage van der Poel.

The teams

Pogacar has a classic elite at his side, tempo-like men who can guess their captain through the site like Tim Wellens, Mikkel Bjerg or Nils Politt from Hürth near Cologne. The former German champion was already second in Roubaix in 2019 and ended the race in the previous year as fourth. He would therefore be able to shape the race even, but does not do it from Teamräson. Politt is the replacement option for UAE, Pogacar should be slowed down by a fall or defects.

For van der Poel’s team Alpecin-Deceuninck that means a lot of work. It is not excluded that Pogacar sends his helper to a group to encourage the race and to confuse Van der Poel. But the Dutch also has outstanding drivers at his side, including Jasper Philipsen, who recently became second in Roubaix and is therefore set for Plan B of the team. In addition, Gianni Vermeresch, who ended the race a year ago as the sixth and Silvan Dillier, the second from 2018.

All in all: tie.

psychology

Pogacar has set itself the goal of winning all important bike races of the present at least once. Of the monuments, he is only missing Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix in his collection, which is why he now dares to go on the pavés of the north. The last current tour winner, who trusted the Paris-Roubaix adventure, was Greg Lemond 1991. He finished the race in 55th place.

Van der Poel, in turn, chases top marks. On the tour of the Flanders, he missed Triumph number four last Sunday, so that he would have been the sole record holder of this race. He already won Paris-Roubaix twice, here he is still missing two victories to attract the four times Belgian winners Roger de Vlaeminck and Tom Boons. Van der Poel’s motivation feeds that.

All in all: tie.

material

The equipment for Paris-Roubaix plays a crucial role. The German Roubaix veteran André Greipel says that some drivers start to a machine with fully pumped tires in Compiègne, but switch to a machine in front of the first sectors, whose tires are filled with less air. In addition, all participants use the largest possible coat width that allow their frames, which are at least 32 millimeters. According to Greipel, the Canyon wheels by Van der Poel’s team have a slight advantage because the manufacturer has developed special components because of the cross experience of the Dutchman. But Pogacar’s supplier Colnago also sets strong material – “But it probably doesn’t matter which wheel Pogacar is on.says Greipel.

All in all: tie.

Conclusion

Above all, the route of the route, mixed with the currently outstanding form, speak for Mathieu van der Poel. In addition, there is his clarity on the route, its anticipation ability and its driver class in all weather conditions. This is an overall package that looks more convincing than the tempo hardness of Tadej Pogacar.

But be careful: Paris-Roubaix is ​​not a normal bike race, it is unpredictable because of the many pitfalls and defect and falling.