The most important events and reports on the economy, central banks, politics from the program of Dow Jones Newswires
US economy surprisingly shrinks by 0.3 percent in the first quarter
The US economy surprisingly shrunk in the first quarter of 2025. As the Ministry of Commerce announced in the context of a first publication, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell over the previous quarter and for the year upgraded by 0.3 percent. In contrast, economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected an increase of 0.4 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2024 the US BIP grown by 2.4 percent. US President Donald Trump has made the tariffs a cornerstone of his economic agenda and promised that they will make America richer in the long term and bring jobs back in the manufacturing business. In March, the commercial balance sheet deficit at Waren achieved a record because the companies opened their inventory in order to advance the tariffs.
US PCE inflation drops as expected in March
The inflation pressure in the USA was roughly waned in March as expected. The level of inflation, the price index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE Deflator), favored by the central bank, was 2.3 (previous month: 2.7) percent higher than a year ago, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected an annual rate of 2.2 percent. The Fed strives for an inflation rate of 2 percent. In the core rate, without the components of food and energy, the index increased by 2.6 (3.0) percent. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a rate of 2.6 percent.
Chicago shopping manager index falls back in April
The mood of the shopping manager from the Chicago area has been clouded in April. The indicator fell to 44.6 points, as the Association of the Chicago shopping manager announced. In March the index was 47.6 points. Economists had expected a value of 45.5 points. The early indicator is therefore further below the so-called growth threshold of 50 points and thus signals an economic weakening in the metropolitan region, which is important for the US economy.
US shallow stocks are sinking unexpectedly and clearly
The raw oil bearing stocks in the USA decreased in the week on April 25th. According to the State Energy Information Administration (EIA), they fell by 2.596 million barrels compared to the previous week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted an increase of 0.1 million barrels. In the previous week, the inventory had increased by 0.244 million barrels.
Golden age of the United States begins with false start
“The golden age proclaimed by US President Donald Trump begins with a clear false start,” explains Bastian Hepperle, economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe. “Trump has to put on the shoe for the full braking of economic growth.” The strong advanced effects in anticipation of the customs increases would not be repeated, but the zigzag course of the US government continues to ensure high uncertainty. “In the event of investment and consumer decisions, reluctance will be announced for the time being,” says Hepperle. “Because of the more visible customs-related loads, the US economy is heading for summer doldrums.”
US work costs increase by 0.9 percent in the first quarter
Labor costs in the United States rose in the first quarter of 2025 as expected. As the US Ministry of Labor announced, labor costs increased by 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter. Economists had predicted an increase in exactly this amount. The increase was also 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the first quarter, labor costs were 3.6 percent higher in the first quarter.
ADP: US private sector creates fewer positions in April
Employment in the US private industry rose weaker in April than expected. As the labor market service provider Automatic Data Processing INC (ADP) reported, only 62,000 jobs were created compared to the previous month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a plus of 120,000 jobs. The bottom line was 147.00 jobs in March, and 8,000 less than originally registered.
German HVPI control sinks to 2.2 percent in April
As expected, the inflation duck in Germany continued in April. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) announced, the harmonized consumer price index (HVPI) rose by 0.5 percent compared to the previous month and was 2.2 (March: 2.3) percent above the level of the previous year. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a monthly increase of 0.5 percent and an annual tax of 2.1 percent.
Coba: German core inflation attracts
Inflation in Germany in April, especially due to lower energy prices, decreased slightly to 2.1 percent. On the other hand, the core inflation rate (without energy and food) has risen to 2.9 percent, which, according to Commerzbank, is primarily due to a higher rate of inflation for services. In the coming months, inflation in Germany should remain just over 2 percent. Commerzbank sees upward risks for its forecast of core inflation of 2.4 percent for the data on Friday.
US government is preparing an emergency plan for farmers
The US government is preparing an emergency plan for farmers if they are damaged by escalating trade wars, said US Agriculture Minister Broke Rollins on Wednesday. “We are working on it. We are preparing. We don’t believe that this will be necessary,” Rollins told Fox News. “We are traveling all over the world to open up new markets.” The government in Washington made around $ 28 billion available to the farmers during Donald Trump’s first trade war. The United States would have to extend its exports of pork, soybeans and other products into other parts of the world to reduce its dependence on China as a trading partner.
Navarro: White House wants to deal as soon as possible
According to the White House trade advisor, the US government is working to negotiate new agreements with other countries as soon as possible. “Every hour’s hour, countries come to the building on the other side of the street, the Ustr,” said Peter Navarro, referring to the office of the US trade officer (United States Trade Representative – Uttr). Navarro did not want to explain the status of an agreement with China. “I believe that the best way to negotiate with China is to negotiate very, very quietly and behind the scenes,” he told CNBC.
Ukraine before completing a raw material agreement with the USA
Ukraine and the USA are faced with the country’s access to the country’s access to the country. The agreement should be signed within the next 24 hours, said Ukrainian government officials. Previously, the Trump government has apparently dropped its point of view, according to which the Washington agreement allows billions of dollars to recover for military aid in the past.
+++ Economic data +++
US/index outstanding home sales March -0.6% GG previous year – NAR
US/index outstanding home sales March +6.1% GG VM to 76.5 – NAR
Canada Feb GV -0.2% GG Jan
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DJG/DJN/APO/SHA/MGO
(End) Dow Jones Newswires
April 30, 2025 13:00 et (17:00 GMT)