Allianz Trade Economic Outlook: Germany’s resilience basis for
Economic recovery
Hamburg (ots) –
– can hardly come from the position: world trade with mini growth of 0.3 %;
World economy grows sluggish at +2.5 %; is the slowest since
2008 outside of recession times
– Positive surprise: After a surprising GDP increase of +0.4 % in
Allianz Trade awaits the first quarter of 2025 for Germany for the full year
growth of +0.1 % and with a significant recovery from 2026
– Now it depends: financial package and investment incentives are crucial
For economic relaxation
– not off the table: despite the positive measures there are still
Challenges through possible trade conflicts with the USA and the global
Fragmentation.
– It must be green and digital: investments in the green and digital
Transformation are essential to increase productivity and
to secure long -term growth potential
Geopolitical tensions – from the persistent war in Ukraine over the
Escaling instability in the Middle East to tighten
Commercial conflicts – continue to shape a volatile global environment. Also that
Global growth remains sluggish at +2.5 % in 2025 and is therefore that
Slowly since 2008 outside of recession times. The fiscal measures
In China and Europe, the markets support something, but the alert willingness remains,
So the current Economic Outlook of the world’s leading credit insurer
Allianz Trade.
“Germany proves its resilience even in times of many uncertainties,” says
Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
“In the first quarter there was even a surprising plus and for the year as a whole
In 2025 we are currently assuming a mini growth of 0.1%. 2026
the economic recovery should take up speed and around 1 % GDP growth
to reach. However, some customs storm clouds could still get this.
It is currently not foreseeable, as is the case in the customs war after the end of the
90-day moratorium continues. The big question is: in what amount and for
Which industries come back the tariffs. This will be for the further
economic recovery. “
Now it depends: structural reforms, green and digital
Transformation must be
The German economy would also be significantly from the targeted structural
Reforms and investments benefit that aim at productivity
to increase and ensure long -term stability. Despite this positive
According to the Allianz Trade economist, the growth remains measures
Damped and external risks such as possible trade conflicts and global
Fragmentation continue to represent challenges.
“Germany is facing a crucial phase,” says Bogaerts. “Unless
Now, when? The structural reforms and investments are
Key to secure economic stability and
Competitiveness. It is essential that companies the opportunities of the
Use green and digital transformation to increase productivity and
to secure long -term growth potential. “
Customs duties remain the greatest risk: USA benefit from agreement with China
The trade conflict with the USA will continue to be a central topic in the future, there
the global uncertainties are on a record high. The reduction of the
US import duties from an average of 25 % to 13 % by setting with China
has brought a certain relief, but the threat by additional
Customs on the EU remains. The possibility of sector -specific
Customs increases, especially in the automotive sector, could be the economic situation
continue to burden.
The United States itself benefits from a reduction in tariffs and thereby one
better growth forecast of +1.6% for 2025-26. At the same time they stand
But with the “Big Beautiful Bill” with high fiscal deficits and possible
Recession risks. In Europe, defense spending and
Debt financing the economic development. The Euro zone and
Germany records moderate growth while the emerging countries
show very heterogeneous, with some of the upgrading of their currencies
benefit.
You can find the entire analysis (PDF, English language) here:
https://ots.de/ryolwp
Allianz Trade is the global market leader in the credit insurance business and
recognized specialist for guarantees and guarantees, debt collection and protection
Against fraud or political risks. Allianz Trade has more than 100
Years of experience and offers its customers comprehensive financial services,
to support them in liquidity and demand management.
Tracked and analyzes the company’s own monitoring system
Allianz Trade Group daily the bankruptcy development of more than 83 million
Small, medium and multinational company. Overall, the
Expert analyzes markets on the 92% of global gross domestic product (GDP)
omit.
With this expertise, the Allianz Trade Group makes world trade safer and
gives over 70,000 customers the necessary trust in their business worldwide
and their payment. As a subsidiary of Allianz and with an AA rating
From Standard & Poor’s is the holding of Allianz Trade based in Paris in
Damage of the financially strong partner at the side of his customers.
The company is represented in over 40 countries and employs more than 5,800
Employees worldwide. In 2024 the Allianz Trade Group generated one
consolidated sales of EUR 3.8 billion and insured worldwide
Business transactions worth EUR 1,400 billion.
Further information on http://www.allianz-trade.de
Note regarding future -oriented statements
The information contained in this message can make statements about future
Expectations and other future -oriented statements contain current
Boarding and assumptions are based on the management, and acquaintances and
unknown risks and uncertainties include the
actual results, developments or events from the
Statements can deviate significantly. In addition to future -oriented statements in
respective context reflects the use of words like “can”, “becomes”,
“should” “expect”, “plan”, “” intends “,” believes “,” estimates “,
“forecast”, “potentially” or “still” also one
future -oriented statement. The actual results, developments
or events can be based on various factors
deviate considerably. Such factors include
among other things: (i) the general economic situation including the
Industry -specific location for the core business or the core markets of the
Allianz Group, (II) The development of the Financial markets including the
“Emerging Markets” including market volatility, liquidity and
Credit events, (III) the frequency and extent of the insured
Damage events including those made from natural disasters
result; In addition, the damage to the damage, (IV) cancellation, (V) extent
Credit cases, (VI) interest rate, (VII) Exchange course developments
including the exchange rate EUR-USD, (VIII) Development of the
Competition intensity, (IX) legal and regulatory changes
including those regarding currency convergence and the European
Monetary union, (x) changes in the Monetary policy the central banks or
Foreign governments, (XI) Effects of acquisitions, including
the associated integration issues, (XII) restructuring measures,
as well as (XIII) general competitive factors in a local,
regional, national or international framework. The
Property of many of these factors can be given by terrorist attacks
and their consequences continue to increase. The company does not take over
Obligation to update future -oriented statements.
Press contact:
Ann-Catrin Boll-Ricker
Head of Corporate Communication
+49 (0) 40/88 34 – 1009
+49 (0) 160/161 7648
mailto: [email protected]
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