With the electoral ban just around the corner for the legislative elections on October 26, national polls draw a competitive panorama where La Libertad Avanza (LLA), led by Javier Milei, emerges as the most voted force in the country. Without sweeping, the ruling party maintains a tight advantage, fueled by the polarization between anti-mileista support and rejection of Peronism. Experts point out that the campaign, converted into a plebiscite on the two years of Milei, could strengthen the ruling party, while the opposition, fragmented, seeks to join forces. Polls by CB Consultora and Proyección agree on a favorable scenario for LLA, although with significant disapproval of the presidential administration.
According to Projection (October 8-14, 3,875 cases, margin of error 1.57%), LLA leads with 36.4%, followed by Fuerza Patria with 34%. The United Provinces reached 6.5% and the Left Front 4.3%, leaving the ruling party with an advantage of 2.4 points. For its part, CB Consultora (October 11-15, 1,668 cases, margin 2.4%) projects LLA at 37.1%, with Fuerza Patria at 26.9% (adding 5.3% of provincial Peronist seals, total 32.2%). United Provinces obtains 6.4% and the FIT 4%. Here, LLA leads by almost 5 points, with a floor of 34.3% (consolidated vote) and a ceiling of 45.5%, compared to 25.1% and 42.1% for Fuerza Patria. Both surveys highlight the cohesion of LLA in the 24 districts, in the face of Peronism divided into multiple lists.
Qualitative data reinforce this trend: CB Consultora, according to Cristian Buttie, positions LLA as the most voted force, benefiting from a participation that could reach 70%, exceeding the expected 60%. The recent Peronist victory in Buenos Aires, with a 14-point advantage, generated a “comeback effect” that, as in 2015, awakened the anti-Peronist vote in key provinces such as Córdoba and Santa Fe. There, little-known Milei candidates gain ground thanks to the influence of the figure of Milei.
However, the polls show fissures: disapproval of Milei reaches 59.8%, with 40.2% approval. The vote is divided into 24.7% direct support for the president and 13.8% for stopping Kirchnerism (38.5% pro-LLA), compared to 18.9% pro-Peronist and 16.6% for punishing the government (35.5% opposition). The rejection is even: 47.4% would never vote for LLA and 49% rule out Fuerza Patria. Third forces, such as the United Provinces, are relegated in this binary struggle.
The outcome is in the air: with narrow margins and a turnout that could surprise, LLA has a chance of consolidating its majority in Deputies with a coup d’état in the scrutiny. But if Peronism manages to unify its dispersed vote, it could narrow the gap. In a context of stabilized inflation but with a persistent recession, Sunday will be key to knowing if Milei reinforces its liberal project or if the opposition manages to put a brake on it. Analysts warn: the anti-establishment vote remains an unpredictable factor, and any oversight can tip the balance.
