Sometimes reality catches up with even the most unlikely predictions: The Saxo Bank team has rummaged through its archives and uncovered some surprising truths.
• “Outrageous Predictions” encourage you to think about unlikely scenarios
• Some forecasts, e.g. B. Gold price, Bitcoin, Brexit, proved to be close to reality
• Hypothetical and speculative elements remain key, investors should consider context
The Danish Saxo Bank has been known in the financial world for years for its annual bombshell: the “Outrageous Predictions”. The highlight: These theses are not intended to be correct, but simply outrageous – they are intended to encourage investors to think about unlikely but possible scenarios.
But sometimes reality catches up with even the most unlikely predictions, as a look at the track record of the Saxo Bank team shows.
Gold prices explode – although not in 2022
Ole S. Hansen has predicted a gold price of $3,000 in 2022. At the time, such an increase was extremely unlikely, as gold was still trading at around $1,800 per troy ounce. However, the record was finally broken in March 2025 – and as a result of a sustained rally, investors now have to pay more than $4,300 for one troy ounce. “The 2022 forecast was – of course – absurd, as gold was trading at around $1,800 at the time of writing. And although it took much longer than predicted, I still find it astonishing that we have reached a point where gold is trading well above $3,000 and continues to attract investor interest,” Hansen is quoted as saying in a statement from Saxo Bank.
Trump and the fall of the dollar
Saxo Bank expert John J. Hardy predicted a massive decline in the US dollar in 2025 – when Donald Trump takes office again – triggered by high tariffs. The dollar actually briefly fell significantly (although the reasons were more complex).
“Although some of the potential market impacts described in the forecast did not materialize, the rise in gold prices described by Ole and the fall in the value of the US dollar meant that it fell well over 10 percent from the highs of early 2025 in a very short space of time. Although the rising price of gold is just as closely related to the falling US dollar, both can be viewed as symptoms of the same phenomenon,” commented Hardy on his “close call”, so his forecast was, at least at times, very close to reality.
NVIDIA stock turns down in 2025 before forecast is met
Another forecast from Hardy is also considered a close call by the Saxo Bank experts: the price development of the NIVIDA share. Hardy had predicted that the chip giant would be worth twice as much as Apple in 2025 thanks to its groundbreaking AI chips. The AI giant didn’t reach these heights, but at least the company’s value climbed almost 50 percent higher than that of the iPhone manufacturer. “This forecast was probably rather tight, as the growth figures were not quite correct. Nevertheless, the basic statement that AI is becoming increasingly important compared to conventional technology has proven to be true. So much so that it deserves mention here,” Hardy is quoted as saying in the statement.
Fossil fuels are making a comeback
What was still considered quite unlikely in 2022 has now been overtaken by reality: around 3 years ago, the experts predicted the climate reversal and predicted that politicians would put the climate goals on hold due to inflation and the threat of social unrest and that investments in fossil fuels would have to be promoted again. At the time of the forecast, it was not yet suspected “that the world was racing into an energy crisis, triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine,” said Ole S. Hansen, head of raw materials strategy. He had attributed the recurring relevance of fossil fuels at the time to “a lack of investment and the increasing need to promote gas over coal”. “It basically provided for a more investor-friendly environment for (until then) frowned upon investments in so-called ‘dirty’ energy production. This step ultimately led to the EU classifying gas and nuclear energy as green investments,” the expert continued.
Volatility spikes after stock market flash crash
Saxo Bank issued this forecast for 2018. Even though there was not such a massive collapse in the twelve months in question that could rival the historic crash of 1987, a “Volmageddon” event, as Saxo Bank calls it, still occurred in February 2018. This destroyed almost all short volatility funds and fundamentally changed the short volatility strategy in the following years. Later in the year, there were signals from the market to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) that its interest rate increases due to the deteriorating economic situation had been a political mistake. This led to a price drop of 20 percent from the high in October to the low on December 26, 2018 – precisely during the Christmas holidays, when liquidity in the market was low.
Bitcoin price rally
In January 2009, the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain was created, which is considered the birth of the crypto veteran. 8 years later, in 2017, Saxo Bank predicted a massive increase in the value of Bitcoin – and was right here too. In 2017, it rose from $800 to $20,000.
The experts based their forecast on the excessive government spending by US President Donald Trump’s government, which led to rising national debt and soaring inflation. Even if the outlook came true, the reasons for the rally differed from those predicted: “The initial meteoric rise was due less to the macroeconomic developments of the Trump era than to Bitcoin speculation,” writes Saxo Bank. But if you look at the recent price increases in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin in 2021, the reasons given in the bold forecast from 2017 would have come true after all.
Brexit 2017 – just the timing was wrong
In 2015, only a few experts had any idea that the United Kingdom would break away from the EU. But Saxo Bank was one of them: In its forecast, it predicted that the UK Independence Party (UKIP) would win 25 percent of the vote in the British general election on May 7, 2015 and thus sensationally become the third largest party in parliament. As a result of the election, UKIP will join forces with the Conservatives under David Cameron in a coalition government and call for the planned referendum on British EU membership in 2017. Two years later, the bank’s prediction came true – the logic of events was very close, despite the different timing.
Massive gold price collapse in 2013
2022 was not the first time that Saxo Bank tended to correctly predict gold price developments. The precious metal had already been scrutinized in 2013 and the price was expected to collapse to $1,200 that year. “Our forecast of $1,200 an ounce signaled a price decline of a third at the time of publication,” says Ole S. Hansen, head of commodity strategy, who made the first accurate bold forecast in 2013. Here the experts were spot on: “Gold corrected to $1,200 an ounce in 2013 and even fell below that as investors increasingly turned their attention to stocks and the U.S. dollar. A key trigger was the break of key support at $1,525 in April 2013 – a move that we believe increased the risk of a bear market that could push the price toward $1,100,” said Hansen.
The teaching? The “Outrageous Predictions” are an exciting annual food for thought – because sometimes you have to consider the unimaginable in order to stay up to date.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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