“The Netherlands is a positive exception in Europe this year, but next year the picture will change and we expect an increase in the number of bankruptcies,” says economist Theo Smid. “American importers placed many orders at the beginning of the year in anticipation of the announced trade tariffs,” he says.
Trustees often miss the net in bankruptcy
“Next year this effect will disappear, so we expect economic growth to decline, resulting in an increase in the number of bankruptcies.” That increase is expected to be limited to 8 percent. The expected number of bankruptcies in both 2025 (3700) and 2026 (4000) is still considerably lower than the peak in 2013 (9400).
In addition to the effects of the American trade tariffs, the weak economy in Germany also has unfavorable consequences for export-oriented sectors such as industry, the transport sector and wholesale in our country. The German economy shrank for the second year in a row in 2024 and has the weakest growth of all major euro countries. China in particular is a major rival in the markets for typical German products, such as cars. The number of German bankruptcies is expected to increase by 9 percent in 2025. In the first half of this year, the number of bankruptcies was even at the highest level in ten years.
In addition to Germany, there has also been a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies in open economies such as Singapore (+44 percent) and South Korea (+10 percent). Italy has also seen a relatively strong increase this year (+10 percent), but according to Atradius this is mainly a correction to the very low levels during corona. In the United States, the number of bankruptcies is expected to increase by 6 percent this year and 7 percent in 2026.
Corona pandemic
The American economy weighs heavily in the global average of bankruptcies. Nevertheless, the credit insurer expects the number of bankruptcies worldwide to decline by 3 percent next year. “In Germany, South Korea and Japan, the number of bankruptcies this year is significantly higher than in 2019, before the corona pandemic. For next year we expect a normalization in those countries towards lower levels and that effect will counteract the increase in the US,” says Smid.
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According to Smid, the decline in the number of bankruptcies in our country can be seen in almost all sectors, such as industry, construction, trade and transport and storage. “Even in the catering industry, although the number there remains relatively high,” says Smid. “We do see the number of company closures heading towards a record.” According to the economist, this is partly due to the stricter self-employed policy, which is causing many self-employed people to drop out.