Netflix – on the way to four-digit prices?
Today, on Tuesday, January 21, 2025, after the US stock market closes, Netflix will present the current quarterly figures for the fourth quarter of 2024 and, at the same time, the full-year figures for 2024. The share closed on January 17, 2025 with a price increase of 1.87 percent and a price of 858.10 US dollars on the NASDAQ technology exchange (yesterday the stock exchanges in the USA were closed due to the holiday).
Quarterly and annual figures for 2024 ahead
First of all, quarterly figures or not, let’s look at the overall picture and compare the respective annual figures. Netflix has achieved quite high sales growth in recent years – sales have gradually risen to new and lofty heights. In 2020, around 25.0 billion US dollars, total sales increased to around 29.7 billion US dollars in 2021, in 2022 sales climbed to around 31.6 billion US dollars and finally to 33.724 billion US dollars in 2023 -Dollar. In percentage terms, Netflix’s sales no longer grew as much compared to previous years, for example from 2018 to 2020.
This may be described as complaining on a high level, but less is just less. The competitive pressure in the streaming business has increased more and more in recent years. In addition to Walt Disney, Apple, Amazon.com, there are now numerous streaming providers in the USA and other important core markets. As is well known, competition stimulates business, but it puts pressure on other key figures.
EBIT in 2023 was $6.205 billion. The annual net income was audited at $5.408 billion.
EPS was $12.03 on a fully diluted basis. The number of outstanding shares has decreased year after year and in 2023 stood at around 449.498 million securities on a fully diluted basis.
Today, according to analysts’ consensus estimates, Netflix is expected to post EPS of $4.19 to $4.21 – quarterly sales are expected to be $10.12 billion.
As part of the QIII/2024 figures published on October 17, 2024, the guidance for QIV/2024 stated EPS of $4.23 and sales of $10.128 billion. For the full year, the market consensus at the time was for 2024 EPS of $19.19 on annual revenue of $38.798 billion.
The price target of JP Morgan and BMO Capital Markets for Netflix shares is $1,000.00, while Oppenheimer, UBS and Argus Research even see $1,040.00. However, it doesn’t have to be a sure-fire success!
Netflix – what does the chart technology say?
In this case, the chart analysis takes place in the daily chart image. The reference value is the respective price of the CFD on Netflix shares, which is available via “NASDAQ” traded with high volume. The price trend from the interim high of November 17, 2021 of $700,330 to the interim low of May 12, 2022 at $162,590 could be used to determine the next overarching top and bottom targets. A Fibonacci analysis could be applied to these two starting points. Which then from the trading platform “ActivTraderThe Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci projections thrown out could then be used to determine future resistance and support.
On the upside, resistance would be at the projections of $905.747 (1,382%) and $1,032.653 (1,618%). On the downside, the projection of $827,237 (1,236%), as well as the levels of $700,330 (1.00%), $573,423 (0.764%) and $494,913 (0.618%) could be used as future supports . The three EMAs (EMA50 in purple color, EMA100 in blue color and EMA200 in red color) added. The respective price target ranges for the bulls and bears would be visualized here with the red and green colored rectangles.
On the upside, a test of the 1,618 percent Fibonacci projection of $1,032.653 would be possible. On the downside, the 1.00% Fibonacci retracement of $700,330 could be tested. The relative strength index (RSI) currently shows a technically neutral market condition at 44.61 points.
Source: ActivTrader
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