News item | 17-12-2024 | 2:00 PM
The chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real. The National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) therefore maintains the threat level at 4 (substantial). This is partly due to the persistently high threat of jihadism. Young people who sympathize with right-wing terrorist and jihadist ideas also appear to be radicalizing more and more quickly online. The speed at which this is happening is worrying. The Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands December 2024 published today warns that an estimated several hundred Dutch young people are active in right-wing extremist and jihadist online environments.
Threat from jihadism remains high
The continued high threat of jihadism is illustrated by the sharp increase in the number of jihadist attacks and arrests in Europe in 2024. The war in Gaza is an important driving factor for the jihadist threat in Europe. Jihadist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS are using the conflict in their propaganda and calling on their followers to carry out attacks in the West against ‘Christian and Jewish’ targets. On September 19, a man attacked people with a knife near the Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam, resulting in one death. The Public Prosecution Service suspects the suspect of murder and attempted murder with terrorist motive.
The jihadist threat mainly comes from the Islamic State (ISIS). Attacks are still taking place in Europe by perpetrators acting alone and inspired by ISIS. But there are also networks in Europe of jihadists from Central Asia and the Caucasus who intend to commit an attack in Europe. They are often affiliated with ISKP, ISIS’s original Afghan province. Other ISIS provinces, such as those in Syria or Somalia, are also trying to direct attacks in Europe or encourage supporters in the West to do so. There is a certain degree of coordination between the ISIS provinces, which sometimes also work together to prepare an attack. This spread of external assessment capacity makes it more difficult to detect assessment planning at an early stage. Controlled attacks are also often more complex and aimed at causing many victims.
Furthermore, there is a potential threat throughout Europe from persons released from detention after a conviction for terrorism. From next year, this may also become more prevalent in the Netherlands: from then on, people will be released with a higher threat profile than many previously released terrorism convicts.
Several sovereigns arrested for terrorist crimes
For the first time, eight sovereigns are being prosecuted in the Netherlands for terrorist crimes. They are suspected of participating in a terrorist organization, three of them also of intending to enter into a violent confrontation with local authorities and make arrests. Weapons were found on several suspects. Sovereigns are a prominent subgroup within the anti-institutional movement. They declare themselves independent of the Dutch government and believe that the laws and regulations do not apply to them. Even after these arrests, there is still a threat of violence from the small group of sovereigns willing to use violence.
More and more right-wing terrorist and jihadist young people are radicalizing online
The rapid online radicalization of young people is an important component of the terrorist threat. There are probably several hundred young people in the Netherlands, sometimes even around 14 years old, active in right-wing terrorist and jihadist online environments. The speed at which some children and young people become radicalized online is worrying. There is a real chance that people active in this online environment will put their money where their mouth is and commit an act of violence. Dozens of Dutch young people between the ages of 12 and 20 have come into the attention of the police and the Public Prosecution Service for, among other things, spreading terrorist propaganda; some also for preparing attacks. Jihadist young people in particular can come into contact online relatively easily with members of ISIS who try to encourage them to travel out or commit an attack. This online increase in radicalization increases the risk of terrorist violence.
New right-wing extremist groups are more prepared to take action
Over the past year, new groups of right-wing extremist boys and men – and some women – have been founded in the Netherlands, some of whom also adhere to terrorist ideas. They are also more willing to take action: they not only share ideas online but also want to meet in person and undertake activities. Some supporters turn to racially motivated violence. The right-wing extremist movement undermines the democratic legal order with its message of white superiority and hatred of minorities.
Threat level
In December 2023, the threat level in the Netherlands was increased from 3 to 4. Since then, the chance of an attack has been ‘substantial’. There are no standard measures or national advice linked to the threat level. The detailed information from the DTN enables security partners (such as the police, municipalities and ministries) to take measures to combat the threat. Naturally, all safety partners are alert and continuous assessment is made of where and how any additional measures are required. In the past period, additional safety measures have been taken where necessary, about which no announcements are ever made. The threat level is also a way to make society extra aware of and provide information about the threat.