NATO has been awakened by Russia and is preparing for a new world order

US President Biden was welcomed at Madrid airport on Tuesday afternoon by King Felipe of Spain.Image ANP / EPA – JJ Guillen/POOL

NATO’s plans are ambitious, but the threats are multifaceted. The extra efforts required come in the context of a bloody war in Ukraine, structural shifts of military and economic power to the East, and democracies in Europe and North America vulnerable to their internal crises.

It is clear that the allies have been awakened by the massive Russian aggression against Ukraine. This manifests itself, among other things, in war crimes that have not been seen on this continent since the wars in the Balkans in the 1990s. It is unclear what they can actually do about it in the short term, except arms deliveries and training of Ukrainian soldiers.

‘Strategic concept’

A package of measures to help Ukraine will be announced at the summit. With means of communication and defense system against drones and the switch to the use of western equipment. But the ‘silver bullet’ that will enable Ukraine to defend itself against indiscriminate Russian attacks on civilian targets is not in the back of the leaders’ pockets.

In short, with the unity and perseverance that NATO leaders will witness, they are not only encouraging their populations but also themselves. The big changes will be reflected in the new ‘strategic concept’, which will look radically different from the version the leaders adopted ten years ago. From a ‘strategic partner’, Russia has now become a ‘immediate threat’, with the ‘Russia no longer negotiable’ camp battling to the last minute with the ‘we must keep the door open for dialogue’ camp on the precise word choice.

Ukraine, Taiwan and Hong Kong

A strategically big change, however, is the development and attitude of China. “The most important thing about the new strategic concept is the different view of the world,” said David van Weel, NATO’s assistant secretary general. “In China and Russia, we see two authoritarian countries that are increasingly linked and challenge the international legal order. For example, by shielding with arguments such as spheres of influence,” he adds, referring to President Putin’s recent statements dividing the world into sovereign states and colonies.

A NATO exercise on Gotland, a Swedish island in the Baltic Sea near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.  Image Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A NATO exercise on Gotland, a Swedish island in the Baltic Sea near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.Image Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

‘Putin does not see the Baltic states and Ukraine as full countries. Xi Jinping cautiously allies with statements from that angle.’ Because China also attributes a sphere of influence to itself, which other countries should not interfere with. The two countries that have traditionally insisted on Article 2(7) of the UN Charter – no meddling in the internal affairs of sovereign states – are now throwing off the masks in the UN Security Council. Van Weel: ‘The invasion of Georgia and Ukraine, the undermining of democracy in Hong Kong, the threatening rhetoric towards Taiwan; there have been many worrying signs for years. What is happening in Ukraine acts as a kind of contrast medium. We knew a lot of things, but now it suddenly becomes very clear.’

compromise

Although China presents the greatest challenge because of its size, economic power and innovative strength, NATO remains an alliance that exists to defend its territory. The military revolution proclaimed in Madrid focuses on this. As with NATO’s new relationship with Russia, major differences of opinion had to be overcome here. The militarily vulnerable Baltic countries wanted the current system, with the symbolic presence of NATO troops on their territory, to be replaced by permanently stationed brigades.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas pointed out in the Financial Times that her country under the current system would be “wiped off the map” in the event of a Russian attack. The final compromise is an expression of the complexity of the various security interests of the thirty allies. And an expression of the political and military constraints to fully fulfill the Baltic wishes.

There will be no permanent bases, but a structure including the core of headquarters, equipment and other supplies. It should be able to guarantee the defense of these countries, with troops flown in quickly. NATO chief Stoltenberg promises that the Russians will not be able to capture the Estonian capital Tallinn. The Saceur (Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO’s highest-ranking general) will have many more ready troops at its disposal than before. They will be partly committed to the defense of certain sectors of the alliance, just like in the Cold War.

Cut-back armed forces

The fact that most standby troops will remain stationed domestically guarantees their optimal use, Western European experts say. Because who knows where they will be needed? The eastern flank is not the only source of instability along NATO’s borders, as the southern member states rightly argue. Among other things, they look with great concern at the instability in the Sahel, where they are losing control and where Russia is gaining influence. Rising tensions between Morocco and Algeria are also fueled to the maximum by Russia.

Since uncertainty is key, there is a premium on flexibility. To guarantee this, readiness and preparedness must be drastically increased – which will be a major task for the European armed forces that have partly cut themselves over the past 25 years. ‘In Northwest Europe we have choked on what the world would look like’, says Van Weel. ‘With the current stocks of some armed forces, we can only sustain total warfare like in Ukraine for a short time and then it will stop again. But luckily we are in time to make adjustments.’

And not without help. The accession of Sweden and Finland is only a matter of time. It’s a strategic shift like you rarely see in Europe. One that will also be of great importance in the defense of the Baltic countries. In this sense, it is indeed a ‘transformative’ moment for Europe.

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