Two years after the dispersal law came into effect, the goal of almost 103,000 shelter places is not in sight. At the end of January, there will be approximately eighty thousand beds available for asylum seekers. After a year in which the asylum ministers wanted to repeal the dispersal law, in which the cabinet fell and municipalities were faced with fierce asylum center protests, the growth in the number of reception places for asylum seekers has stagnated.
Only four in ten municipalities currently comply with the dispersal law, figures show NRC has requested this from the Central Agency for the Reception of Asylum Seekers (COA). Of the total of 342 municipalities, 196 municipalities have too few shelters to comply with the law. More than a hundred municipalities do not have a single shelter at the end of January.
The bottom line is that there are sufficient shelter places at provincial level: this is only the case in Groningen, Friesland, Drenthe and Flevoland. But these provinces already had sufficient places before the introduction of the dispersal law.
With municipal elections looming, some municipalities have chosen in recent months to withdraw or postpone asylum plans. The COA recognizes this “signal”, according to a spokesperson.
Polarization and voting behavior
Last summer, the reluctance among local administrators to make asylum plans too close to the municipal elections became visible. For example, in June, a week after the fall of the cabinet, the municipality of Raalte decided to cancel the plans “on hold” to put.
The council previously planned to announce the intended location in the autumn, six months before the elections on March 18, 2026. “We do not want the reception location to polarize our residents. That may also have an effect on voting behavior,” Gerria Toeter, councilor of Raalte, said at the time. NRC. “The new council will still have to agree to the asylum seekers’ center’s environmental permit.”
That was before the fierce protests at town halls in the following months, which put extra pressure on local decision-making. Little decision-making is expected in the coming months. Many municipalities will leave decisions about new shelters to the new council and the new council, which in many cases was only formed around the summer. And then it’s summer recess again, a period in which the council does not meet.
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Better distributed
The dispersal law was introduced in January 2024, after a summer in which there was such a shortage of asylum reception places that people had to sleep outside at the registration center in Ter Apel. The aim of the law was to expand the number of shelter places and a better distribution of asylum seekers’ centers throughout the country. With the law, the minister could, in extreme cases, force municipalities to open a reception location.
After the first two-year ‘cycle’ of the law, a net of thirteen thousand shelter places were added, and shelter is also slightly better distributed across the country. In January 2024, the three northern provinces and Flevoland still received 31 percent of asylum seekers, in January 2026 this fell to 24 percent.
Although approximately six thousand sustainable shelter places will be added this year, COA expects the shortage of shelter places to increase further in the coming months. More temporary emergency shelters are closing than new ones are opening. About half of the current eighty thousand shelter places are temporary.
If provinces do not come up with conclusive plans, the minister will distribute the remaining places
The law will enter its second circulation in February. This means that outgoing minister Mona Keijzer (BBB), who is responsible for the dispersal law, will set a new target for the number of required asylum reception places before February 1 and divide this number among provinces. This distribution takes into account the population and the socio-economic score of municipalities.
In the following months, municipalities will have to sit down again to make plans to meet their ‘tasks’. They must submit these plans no later than October 31, after which the minister will make a ‘distribution decision’. If provinces do not come up with conclusive plans, the minister will distribute the remaining places. The shelters must be ready by July 1, 2027, if not, the minister can intervene and force municipalities to open an asylum seekers’ center.
Lower target
The new target for the number of shelter places to be organized is probably lower than two years ago. The latest forecasts have not yet been published by the ministry, but last September the COA estimated still need 88,000 shelter places on January 1, 2027. That is a lot less than the almost 103,000 places that former minister Faber asked municipalities in her allocation decisions last year. That is still the number that municipalities must take into account for next year, because the distribution decisions apply for two years.
Dozens of municipalities were critical of these decisions, because Faber would reward municipalities that do too little in asylum reception. By legally recording the ‘extra places’ that willing municipalities voluntarily offered in the allocation decision, the allocation of municipalities with too few asylum places could actually be reduced.
It is still unclear whether, and in what way, the new distribution that the cabinet must make this year will build on the distribution decisions that Faber took last year. To questions from NRC The Ministry of Asylum and Migration does not provide an answer to this.
Many municipalities do not have to start from scratch, they can build on plans made over the past two years. Yet “new energy” is needed from municipalities to implement the law, says Mark Boumans, mayor of Doetinchem and chairman of the asylum committee of the Association of Dutch Municipalities (VNG).
Over the past two years, some municipalities have “started working very energetically,” says Boumans. “But there are also municipalities where the asylum plans are mainly a paper exercise. And that have pulled the handbrake due to all the hassle of last year.”
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Fissionist
After then State Secretary for Asylum and Migration Eric van der Burg (VVD) piloted the dispersal law through the Senate in January 2024, the law had become a divisive issue for the then forming parties NSC, BBB, PVV and VVD. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz turned against her party colleague’s law. Spread? The influx had to be reduced, that would be the priority of the four parties.
Five months after the dispersal law was introduced, it was again at risk when PVV minister Marjolein Faber became responsible for its implementation. The PVV has always opposed the law; Geert Wilders referred to it as the ‘asylum coercion law’ and Faber announced his intention to abolish the law after the first cycle. For municipalities, this lack of clarity, direction and support from national politics was a major obstacle when making asylum plans.
Everywhere it is about the protests, the violence, the intimidation and the impact on politicians and their families
In July, a month after the fall of the cabinet, PVV leader Geert Wilders showed up at a demonstration against the arrival of an asylum seeker center in Zwolle, prior to a city council meeting. In the following months, there were fierce protests in front of town halls in dozens of municipalities, during which the riot police had to intervene several times. In Venlo, the houses of the responsible councilors had to be secured. And in Terneuzen, a CDA councilor, in favor of asylum reception, chose not to vote on the asylum seekers’ center because of the “heavy pressure” he experienced.
The unrest has taken a heavy toll on local administrators, says Boumans. “I have been involved in local politics since 1995. I cannot remember when there have been such massive protests against decision-making by municipalities. Everywhere I go it is about the protests, violence, intimidation and their impact on local politicians and their families.”
Back cover
Successful implementation of the new cycle therefore depends on the attitude of the forming parties, says Boumans. “The new cycle will require municipalities to come up with more concrete plans. In the run-up to the municipal elections, this may cause further commotion. And if The Hague says again: we don’t need it, then it will become very complicated. Then I think the Netherlands will be locked down when it comes to creating new shelters.”
It appears that the incoming cabinet will provide the ‘Hague backing’ that municipalities have sorely missed recently. In one interim formation document party leaders Rob Jetten (D66) and Henri Bontenbal (CDA) say they want to maintain the dispersal law “at the request of municipalities”. That was before the VVD joined as a forming party. On Friday, January 30, two days before the start of the new cycle of the dispersal law, the forming parties will present their coalition agreement.
Dilan Yesilgöz kept quiet about the law during this formation. The VVD election manifesto does not mention the dispersal law, but it does state that a “fair distribution” of asylum seekers across the country is necessary.
Municipalities still support the dispersal law en masse: during a members meeting of the VNG last autumn 98 percent voted of the municipalities to maintain the law. “I think it is a good law that would have functioned properly if the responsible ministers had simply supported it,” says Boumans. “Then the asylum reception would now have been neatly spread across the Netherlands, much more cost-efficient and of better quality. It is simply a shame.”
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