As the war in Ukraine drags on, growing the risks of an escalation that brings the crisis to the brink of a nuclear attack. On the way to the eight months of fighting, the Ukrainian advance on the battlefield and the unity of action of the Western powers, a constant since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion, have led Russia to a situation of manifest vulnerability and isolation, which is in no way compensated by the illegal referendums in four Ukrainian provinces and their subsequent annexation, a flagrant violation of international law. The last variable in the conflict has been the celebration in Prague of a summit that has brought together the 27 partners of the European Union and 17 other neighboring states, a project announced in May by Emmanuel Macron that has given a charter to the so-called European Political Community, a platform in the embryonic phase that, however, reinforces the European objective of controlling Russia and its counterpart, Belarus.
At the same time, the eighth package of sanctions approved by the EU will aggravate the Russian economy in the medium term, increasingly dependent on trade with China and India. Although the first predictions about the decline in Russian GDP have not been fulfilled – a drop of 8% was forecast in 2022, but everything indicates that it will remain at 4% – and the ruble has recovered from its collapse in February, Russia assumes a great risk when trusting its economic resilience to the link with the two great powers of Asia. It is as true that European countries are paying a high price as a result of the energy crisis as it is that imports of Russian gas have gone from 40% to 10%, with the consequent contraction of foreign exchange earnings, impossible to compensate in other markets.
If the reaction to the mobilization order for 300,000 reservists is added to these data, the deterioration of the social climate in Russia is evident. -The war has reached all homes- and explains the multiplication of voices asking to counteract the bad news coming from the front with a forceful response: cross the Rubicon of resorting to a tactical nuclear weapon. Because Putin’s populism has given wings to radical nationalism, to preachers in the media and on political platforms who demand victory at all costs. Something that entails a certain danger of overflowing all theories about nuclear escalation, calculation of risks and response of adversaries.
President Putin has fueled that exalted climate by taking victory for granted, something that, in practice, leads him to exclude more than ever the possibility of a negotiated outcome of the war that would force him to cover up a defeat. Similarly, the dimensions of the Ukrainian sacrifice and the successes of recent weeks have led Volodymyr Zelensky to exclude any negotiation with the enemy if piloted by Putin. The maintenance of this blockade situation is humanely and materially unsustainable in the medium term, it puts European security at a very high risk and multiplies the uncertainties of the future, including nuclear Armageddon, that Joe Biden now believes possible. That and other fears are more justified with each passing day and force NATO and the EU to face the crisis from realism and prudence, renouncing in advance the possibility of placing the Kremlin in a dead end and ready to do anything .