They appeared with a secondary role in 2024, although all the actors in the industry do not doubt that their role will increase. The emergence of mortgage loans became a boost for the real estate sector, especially from the second half of 2024. But, if this macroeconomic reality is confirmed, the hope is that its impact on the sector will gain even more space. And, then, that his return will be with all the glory.
One of those who project this scenario is Federico González Rouco, economist Empiria. From his vision, the demand for housing loans in Argentina is “infinite.” And it’s based on numbers: “There are 40% of households with a housing deficit and 40% of young people between 25 and 35 years old who live with their parents.” This last segment is the public that the banks aim to seduce, since they are more than 2 million people. “What surprised me was how quickly the volume of loans rose: from US$10 million to US$200 million per month. But the Banks do not have those amounts of their own to pour monthly into the market without full recovery,” adds González Rouco. Therefore, from his point of view, in November the amount of loans granted was “already ironed out”, as some entities began to raise the rate and shorten terms. “This year, it will end with a mortgage market of US$2.5 billion, better than the US$700 million in 2024, but less than the US$4 billion in 2017. All of this will be contingent on how much banks can unload portfolios in the financial market (securitize). For that, the exit from the stocks will be key,” judgment.
Context. After a lethargy, the purchase and sale of real estate reacted in 2024. According to data from the College of Notaries of the City of Buenos AiresLast November, 5,755 deeds were registered in CABA, which represented 41.5% more than in the same month of 2023. Projections even indicate (for the moment without official data) that December was a month with “even more scriptures”, which suggests that 2024 will have exceeded 54,000 deeds of sale, making it the best in the last 6 years.
In turn, while 53% of those surveyed by Zonaprop assured that the policy with the greatest impact on the increase in transactions was the offer of mortgage loans, while 39% attributed it to money laundering (or Asset Regulation Regime).
Why did the return of credit boost the sector? González Rouco answers it. “There are three reasons why financing for the sector appeared. The first is that the Government did not talk about mortgage credit and that seems very important to me, because in the past there were many bills that attempted to change the established conditions. When Milei took office he said that the issue of mortgage loans was a problem that he got out of. Regardless of whether you like the phrase or not, the financial sector interprets that nothing is going to be touched. Later there was a bet by the banks on the economic plan and the proof of that is that it was not just the public ones that came out. The third point is that the State stopped being the main client and the banks went out to look for clients in the private sector,” he concludes.
For Alejandro Ginevrapresident of GNV Groupthe resurgence of mortgage loans “democratizes” access to housing. Because? “It involves the long-term financing of real estate, through financial institutions. Furthermore, this translates into greater dynamism in the Real Estate market, with the consequent long-term liquidity,” he responds. The broker is another of those who highlights the “importance” of the “rapid implementation” of credits for the housing also for apartments in well, “That would speed up construction and, therefore, the growth of the workforce. In a regulatory context in which demand is increasing significantly, mortgage loans make it possible to project growth in the sector during 2025.”he maintains.
Perspectives. Juan Manuel TapiolaCEO of the developer Spaziosalso shows his optimism: “We anticipate that it will continue to present challenges, but we trust in a more dynamic market thanks to the consolidation of mortgage and intermediate loans, which could generate opportunities for the middle class, the segment to which we direct our developments”. In that sense, the developer is about to launch a development in the Caballito neighborhood, as well as a large-scale project in Villa Real, in the Villa Devoto area.
For its part, Patricio Rozenblumco-founder of PBG Developmentsconsider that “It is difficult to do futurology, but we have to see how long the measure is carried out by all the banks, that is, that they really assemble the commercial teams and release the product en masse for all the people and that they do not put too excessive obstacles to the developments to enter, that could be an inconvenience”.
If this finally occurs, Rozenblum estimates that “by mid-year the measure will minimally impact 20-30% more well sales operations, and could reach up to 50% more well sales.” And he concludes: “In 2017/18, mortgages were around 20-30% of total deeds. In the ‘1 to 1’, they reached almost 40-50% of credit operations. That is the measure we rely on to make predictions of whether well loans come out. We believe that it will be quite similar to what society usually tends to do when purchasing real estate.”
With a lot of prominence to gain, the real estate market seems to have credit again.
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by Marcelo Alfano
