The state pension age will remain at 67 years and three months at least until 2031. The Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment announced this on Friday. For a higher state pension age in 2031, life expectancy would have had to grow much faster than what is projected for that year.
Forecasts published by the Central Bureau of Statistics on Friday are leading. The legal benchmark is the life expectancy of 65-year-olds in five years: the ministry determines the state pension age five years in advance.
That’s why it was now 2031’s turn. This year, CBS examined the expected remaining lifespan of 65-year-olds in that year. According to that forecast, they will have an average of 21 years and 7 days to live in 2031. This would make them more than three weeks older than the cohort of 65-year-olds in 2030 that CBS examined last year for its ‘pension calculation’. In other words: the life expectancy of 65-year-olds is increasing slightly.
Why isn’t the state pension age increasing? Because it would fluctuate too much if you use small differences in life expectancy as a guideline. It is legally established that the state pension age increases in steps of three months. And such an increase may only be implemented if the life expectancy of 65-year-olds increases significantly: the ‘threshold value’ is four and a half additional months of life.
It has also been established that the state pension age cannot be lowered. Over the decades, the Dutch have become increasingly older and that trend is decisive. During the corona pandemic, death rates suddenly rose sharply. Although this reduced life expectancy, it did not affect the state pension age.
In fact, at the end of 2023 – not so long after the end of the pandemic – the CBS forecasts gave reason to announce an increase in the state pension age. The result: from 2028 onwards, people will not receive their first state pension on their 67th birthday, but only three months later.
Complicatedly, CBS had calculated that the average 65-year-old would live longer in 2031 than the currently estimated 21 years and 7 days. The difference is small, but still: last year they thought that this group of people had an average of 21 years and 29 days to live after 2031. More than three weeks extra. The statisticians have now adjusted that figure downwards. The mortality rate did not or hardly decrease in 2024. After the pandemic, life expectancy has risen again, but “the recovery”, writes CBS, “is slower than expected”. The precise reasons are difficult to pinpoint, says CBS demographer Ruben van Gaalen.
“The overall vulnerability may have increased as a result of the pandemic: almost all of us have experienced that disease, many before having been vaccinated. Perhaps the postponed care at the time also played a role. There was a general health crisis, screenings for other diseases were sometimes postponed by many months.” Falling elderly people also seem to reduce the life expectancy of 65-year-olds, says Van Gaalen: people who slip or trip and as a result die within a month. For example, because they break their hip and their health ends up in a downward spiral. Statistics Netherlands recently announced that more than seven thousand people over the age of 65 died last year after a fall.
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