The impasse in politics in The Hague, which marked the first phase of the formation, is still there. And so D66 and CDA – which together have 44 seats – must jointly negotiate an “ambitious agenda” for the Netherlands over the next three weeks. This is what scout Wouter Koolmees (D66) writes in his report to the House of Representatives on Tuesday evening.
The two center parties will talk about housing, nitrogen, economy, security and migration: the five major themes that concern many voters and that often dominated during the campaign.
The party that is not allowed to participate is the VVD (22 seats), while that party would have liked to participate, as is also evident from the scouts’ report. That is exceptional. It is the first time since 2006 that the VVD is not allowed to participate in a (phase in a) formation. Party leader Dilan Yesilgöz warns on X for ‘time-consuming intermediate steps’. From the sidelines, she says that the VVD is ready to “help build” a cabinet with JA21.
According to Koolmees, D66 and CDA “can operate from the political center, both to the left and to the right.” They are prepared to “take a step forward and have substantive conversations with each other, explore compromises and thereby look for similarities instead of differences.”
Unwise
Why is the VVD not allowed to participate? Because blocking GroenLinks-PvdA reduces the possibilities for a coalition, Koolmees explained at his press conference. “That is unwise at this stage.” In the background, D66 and CDA have been gnashing their teeth at the VVD’s negative attitude since the campaign.
The fact that D66 and CDA are already discussing the content is an emergency measure. Koolmees thus tries to push the blockages that have characterized the formation to the background into the background. Koolmees has not been able to create a breakthrough for the favorite option of the largest party D66: a cabinet with VVD, CDA and GroenLinks-PvdA. And also not for the VVD proposal: a coalition with D66, CDA, JA21.
Left: Martin Bosma listens to scout Koolmees. Right: Rob Jetten (D66) arrives for the interview.
Photo Sem van der Wal / ANP, Photo Remko de Waal / ANP
It is striking that D66 leader Rob Jetten told the scout that he is willing to form with JA21, but without the VVD. Jetten does not want to negotiate with three right-wing parties. In Jetten’s proposal, D66-CDA-GroenLinks-PvdA-JA21-ChristenUnie should form a coalition. The substantive differences are large and the Christian Union does not want to participate in government, so this route is not realistic at the moment. Above all, the proposal seems to be a threat to the VVD: you are not necessarily needed.
At the same time, Jetten and CDA leader Henri Bontenbal will have to stimulate the VVD and other parties in drawing up substantive plans. Jetten was enthusiastic about Koolmees’ proposal on Tuesday evening and assured that he would also take other parties into account. He hopes to “entice the VVD and others to work together.”
Ambitious agenda
Bontenbal is “looking forward to an ambitious agenda,” he said after Jetten in turn. “An agenda that is broader than these two parties, in the hope that there is enough in it for other parties to jump on the bandwagon later.” Does Bontenbal understand that the VVD is being left out? “I can follow the scout’s line of reasoning.”
But the fact that the VVD is not allowed to participate in this phase does not mean that the party has suddenly become irrelevant in the formation. According to Koolmees, there is “broad support” in the House for a coalition of at least D66, CDA and VVD.
Furthermore, the scout mentioned the Senate as an important factor at least five times. There, says Koolmees, GroenLinks-PvdA (14 seats) and the BBB (13 seats) are the two largest factions. If the future coalition wants to achieve anything, it must take this into account now, he emphasizes. Jetten and Bontenbal also mentioned the importance of the Senate.
GroenLinks-PvdA has said that they think Koolmees’ plan is sensible. It means that at least for now that party will not be pushed aside. If negotiations are conducted about the content instead of along party lines, GroenLinks-PvdA members think, there is a greater chance that the VVD will not categorically exclude them.
The plan to let D66 and the CDA now take the lead together does not seem illogical. The two center parties have quite a few similar ambitions on the five substantive themes formulated by Koolmees.
During the election campaign, both parties emphasized that they consider cooperation important, after the chaos of the Schoof cabinet.
Not unimportant: Bontenbal and Jetten get along well with each other. The two know each other from the time when Jetten was Minister for Climate and Energy during the Rutte IV cabinet and Bontenbal was energy spokesperson for the CDA.
During the election campaign, both party leaders did not rule out any parties – except for PVV and FVD. They have come to call this exclusion ‘old politics’, an accusation against VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz, who focused on breaking points. Not with GroenLinks-PvdA and no changes in mortgage interest deduction. This strategy of the VVD partly contributed to the fact that the party was ultimately able to limit its losses, from 24 to 22 seats.
But even after the elections, Yesilgöz has not yet created any room to make collaboration with GroenLinks-PvdA possible. No one in The Hague expects to lift that blockade before the municipal elections in March, for fear of being punished by the voter. Insiders do not dare to speculate on whether Yesilgöz is prepared to make a turn after this.
Koolmees is skeptical about the right-wing coalition that the VVD wants, with D66-VVD-CDA-JA21. That coalition has 75 seats and therefore just short of a majority in the House. It is “not a given,” says Koolmees, that no MPs will leave in the meantime. With one departure, such a right-wing coalition would already have a minority and could be voted out.
All in all, Koolmees’ advice is mainly a way to save time. He thinks that “after the dust of the election battle has settled,” “more space will be created” for an open conversation.
The House will debate Koolmees’ report on Thursday, and the House must then ratify his plan by motion. D66 will also come with one or more informants, Koolmees himself is not available.
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