Paradoxically, the responsibility of a leader in a crime can be evident and also unlikely. There are cases in which common sense indicates responsibility, but the investigations do not find the evidence that is needed to sit the obvious responsible on the bench of the accused.
It happened twice with Donald Trump, but it does not seem to be the case of Jair Bolsonaro. The Supreme Judges of Brazil believe they have sufficient evidence to judge the former president for the coup plan that produced the assault of January 8, 2023 to the buildings of the Republic in Brasilia.
Special prosecutor Robert Mueller investigated Russian interference in the American electoral process, through hacker squads and networks in networks, to help Trump beat Hillary Clinton. At the end of his hard work, that former FBI director was certain that the New York tycoon knew and allowed Kremlin agents to help him become president. Mueller was able to test meetings between Russian agents and the environment closest to the Republican candidate. But he failed to obtain the evidence that is needed to guarantee the certainty indicated by the experience and common sense of who investigated the case.
Something similar happened with the violent assonated coupter that occurred on January 6, 2021. Who has continued on television that tragic event with which it was tried to destroy the electoral process that Joe Biden had won, does not doubt Trump’s responsibility. But the FBI did not find the evidence that confirmed certainty. For the second time, the obvious was not likely, that is, it did not have necessary evidence.
Nor were evidence achieved, beyond the shouts of some fans looking for vice president Mike Pence to kill him, that there was a plan that included that assault in the assault on the Capitol.
That despite his clear responsibility, Trump has returned to the presidency, excites Bolsonaro. On January 6, 2021 he left a stain in American history. And if something confirmed that the then chief of the White House was behind the asonada, it is the pardon he granted, as soon as he returned to the oval office, the thousand and a half of violent “Trumpists” who assaulted the Capitol. That massive concession of impunity implies an indirect recognition of its responsibility, although it is not worth proof.
That Trump has been able to return to the presidency should not be excited much to Bolsonaro, because his case is different. In the coup attempt in Brazil is the testimony as a repentant of a personal collaborator of the then president, to which the testimonies of high military commanders are added revealing to have learned about the plan. These tests also confirm that the plan included three magnicides. The conspiracy poisoned President Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alkmin and then president of the Supreme Federal Court Alexandre de Moraes.
It would not have been the first magnicide committed by the extreme right of Brazil. Former JustoCcelino President Kubitschek was killed in 1976 by the Brazilian military dictatorship, headed at that time by General Ernesto Geisel.
Possibly, former President Joao Goulart was also the victim of murder. In that case, by poisoning. The regime prevented the autopsy and, almost four decades later, the body was exhumed but vestiges of poison were not found. Even so, it was not ruled out that the death of Goulart in Argentina has been by poisoning and that the time elapsed by the evidence by impossible to confirm the crime with the autopsy. In fact, in Argentina Joao Goulart had already suffered an attack of the Triple A.
If the coup plan, Lula, Alkmin and Moraes had died they would have died. By the way, Bolsonaro says that it is a witch hunt and that there are no evidence against him. However, the Supreme Federal Court, using the confession made by a former personal collaborator of the conservative leader, and also the claims of several high military commanders, decided to make the trial.
Despite the forcefulness of the evidence, the ultra -rightist leader is committed to his situation and ends up favoring him to return to the presidency, as happened with the complaints against Trump for the Russian fraudulent interference in the electoral process with which he won his first presidency, and also for the assault on the Capitol.
Together with his Ministers of Justice, Defense and Civil House, Bolsonaro is accused of a coup attempt, destruction of public heritage, for the plan that also included murdering the then president, the vice president and the head of the Judiciary.
In this way, Brazil will have the greatest trials for political crimes since the recovery of democracy. The Impeachmeant that dismissed Fernando Collor de Mello for the crimes of corruption denounced by the former president’s own brother, just like the trial that in 2005 took to jail the powerful head of the civilian house of the first Government of the PT, José Dirceu, for the corruption scandal baptized “Mensalao”, were less serious than those that Bolsonaro would have committed.
Also the impeachment that took Dilma Rousseff out of power in 2016 for having made the deficit to win re -election, does not match this case. Nor is the corruption trial that Michel passed away as soon as he left the presidency. The crimes that lead Bolsonaro to the bench of the defendants are even more serious than those investigated in the “Lava Jato”, in which with scarce and weak evidence the judge of Curitiba Sergio Moro imprisoned Lula, a situation reversed two years later by the maximum instance of justice.
The eyes of the region will converge in the historic judicial process that could lead to a hard conviction, in addition to having a strong impact of unpredictable consequences on the Brazilian political scenario.
The only sure thing is that if in the trial the supreme judges corroborate the guilt of Bolsonaro, the hard core of his followers will not modify his support for the ultra -conservative leader. As Mark Twain explained, “no amount of evidence manages to convince an idiot.”
