The dragons boast a superior technical and competitive figure compared to Barbarez’s men. In Zenica the stadium conditions but we face it with reduced capacity, and we have already won there in 2019 and 2020
The Bosnian anger at the Azzurri’s celebration is understandable: we wouldn’t have taken it well either if, at the time of the playoff draw, they had rejoiced at having found Italy and not another top seed. That of Dimarco, Esposito and Vicario was, as they say in jargon, a dressing room gesture: it should have remained in the closed rooms of Italy but the television Big Brother handed it over to the world. An unsurprising gesture, however. Predictions in such balanced situations always leave one looking bad but, before Wales-Bosnia, everyone was hoping for Dzeko and his teammates. Now we know that they will be very strong against us.
not just ranking
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The explanation for this preference is the quality of the two teams, starting with the objective parameter of the FIFA ranking. Wales were 35th before the semi-final (lost one place with the defeat), Bosnia instead at number 71 (now up five places). But this type of figure is more suited to tennis. In football, something else counts and Wales in any case seemed better equipped to reach the final, with Premier League players and pace and superior technical and competitive strength. Bosnia, on the other hand, is not Croatia or even Serbia, in short it is not a power of the former Yugoslavia: it arrived in the group after Austria and before Romania. In its history it has only qualified for one World Cup (Brazil 2014, no groups), never been to the European Championship, and in Nations it has always been relegated to Serie B. Wales was in Qatar in 2022 and has another tradition.
BETWEEN CARDIFF AND ZENICA
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The other aspect that tips the balance towards Bosnia is the environmental one: the venue of the final. Cardiff – immediately denied on Thursday – was scarier than Zenica: almost forty thousand fanatics who always play with the team as if they were a twelfth on the pitch. In Wales you don’t win easily, the 7-1 defeat of North Macedonia in November scared many observers. In the last three years, since March 2023, Bosnia has only won at home against Iceland, Liechtenstein, Cyprus, San Marino and Romania: as soon as the quality of the opponents increases, problems arise.
two successes
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Not only that: the Zenica stadium, moreover reduced due to a FIFA sanction and for reasons of public order, will contain a maximum of 9 thousand spectators, not exactly a terrifying arena. Here we won 3-0 in 2019 and 2-0 in 2020, again with Mancini. The last one in Wales, twenty-four years ago, with Trapattoni as coach, Italy lost. On Thursday the Welsh fury was seen a little less, but it cannot be denied that, before the penalties, Wales had done – certainly not very well – something more. And in the end Bosnia thought about defending itself, with determination and character, without ever leaving the defensive zone. Let it be said without false hypocrisy: they are within reach. But it depends on us. We certainly gave them extra motivation and there was no need for it.
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