News item | 09-12-2025 | 4:00 PM
Radicalization is increasingly an individual process. Committing an attack is also more of an individual matter than it used to be. This makes it more difficult to predict who, when and why someone will commit a violent act. This is what the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) says in the six-monthly Terrorism Threat Assessment in the Netherlands. The risk of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real, which is why the threat level remains at 4 (substantial).
Acting National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security Wieke Vink: “Since 2020, terrorist attacks in Europe have been committed almost exclusively by perpetrators who acted alone. We see perpetrators with a new personally created world view. This is often a mix of religious and political beliefs, conspiracy theories and hatred in combination with personal circumstances. Attackers can also act out of a pure fascination with violence.”
Centrally managed terrorist organizations still pose a major threat to security in Europe. At the same time, radicalization is increasingly taking place on social media, gaming platforms and in chat groups that are not directly managed by these organizations. By using fluid online networks, (supporters of) terrorist organizations spread propaganda, knowledge and ideas to encourage individuals to use terrorist violence. The impact of an attack by a single perpetrator – for example a knife attack or driving into people with a car – is smaller, but the chance that such an attack will be successfully carried out is greater.
Jihadism
The threat of jihadist attacks in Europe and the Netherlands remains present. The threat appears to be temporarily subsiding because international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda are likely to be less able to carry out attacks in Europe due to ongoing counterterrorism operations worldwide. However, ISIS has the ability to quickly rebuild attack capabilities when military operations against ISIS diminish. It is important that ISIS has gained strength in Syria, among other places, in recent months. In 2025, several jihadist terrorism convicts with a higher threat profile were released from detention in the Netherlands. To date, these released terrorist convicts have not, as far as can be seen, performed any actions that indicate the intention to commit a terrorist attack. It cannot be ruled out that these people may engage in jihadist-motivated violence. New releases from 2027 onwards could increase the terrorist threat.
Right-wing extremism
The threat from right-wing extremism is still present. Various arrests have been made within the right-wing extremist environment, but there are no indications that the willingness to use violence has increased. Most right-wing extremists see openly calling for violence as counterproductive. Instead, efforts are being made, increasingly successfully, to normalize right-wing extremist ideas and activities. This normalization creates fear, hatred and racism in society and undermines social cohesion. In some cases it can even lead to violent incidents.
The entire Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands December 2025 is here to find.