Temporary power outages are also likely for parts of Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Malta and Cyprus. This is what the Dutch grid operator TenneT says in response to the European Winter Outlook, which the European grid operators published on Thursday. In particular, the problems with nuclear reactors in France and Ireland make it likely that parts of the country will be temporarily without power during a normal winter. An extremely cold winter also threatens problems in other countries such as Poland, because the supply of coal across the river could then stop.
For the Winter Outlook, the 39 network operators submit their expectations of supply and demand on their electricity market. At times when these are not in balance, countries try to help each other. The fact that there are still times when some areas have too little electricity is normally very exceptional in Europe. ‘Two years ago, for example, it happened for a few hours in Kosovo around Christmas,’ says Jan Vorrink manager of TenneT’s control center. ‘But normally this is something we mainly know from Africa.’
Stationary nuclear power plants
There are several reasons why the risk of shortages has now increased. First, there are the aforementioned problems with nuclear power plants. This is especially the case in France. Due to overdue maintenance during the corona period and problems with corrosion, about half of the forty power stations there are now out. In addition, the demand for electricity is growing throughout Europe due to the further sustainability of energy, including heat pumps. The high gas price last year gave that electrification an extra boost.
Whether the power will indeed be turned off here and there ultimately depends on various factors. A harsh winter in particular would put the net to the test. The lower the temperatures, the higher the energy consumption, especially in France where a lot of electrical heating is used. This can quickly lead to problems, especially if power stations fail unexpectedly. This often concerns shortages of a few hours. The network operator solves this by temporarily shutting down different parts of the network in succession. It is controlled so that the closure is announced in advance.
In the Netherlands, such blackouts are not obvious. Vorrink: ‘Power is available from many different sources and the Netherlands also has solid electricity connections with surrounding countries. It is still possible in theory, but the chance is close to zero in our models.’