As the 2025 holiday season approaches, fashion retailers in the EU and US are moving into a discount phase. This is characterized by caution, shortened purchasing calendars and tighter margins. Despite improving consumer sentiment, data platforms such as Deloitte and PwC are predicting a year-on-year decline in holiday spending. This forces brands to change their pricing strategies. They must rely on market information to protect their profits.
With Black Friday falling on November 28th and Cyber Monday on December 1st, retailers are facing a shortened promotional window. This creates a difficult balancing act between early discounts and generating sufficient sales. At the same time, margins must not be sacrificed through broad price discounts.
Longer promotional periods and earlier discounts
Data from fashion benchmarking platform Lectra Retviews suggests a structural shift in discounting behavior in the US and EU. In the latter, the proportion of discounted items is gradually shrinking. This happens even though the promotions extend over a longer period of time. This reflects increased pressure on retailers to clear inventory amid stabilizing but persistent inflation. The US market reflects these trends. However, discount peaks remain slightly lower than in 2024.
After increasing discounts between 2023 and 2024, retailers could return to stronger promotions this year. In doing so, they want to counteract the weaker forecasts for Christmas spending. Retviews found that July 2025 discounts were down slightly year-over-year in both regions. This is in contrast to January, which saw longer periods of reductions. The summer reductions remained more conservative and expired more quickly.
In fact, one of the most noticeable changes is the timing. In 2025, premium brands began their seasonal promotions weeks earlier than the previous year. The Danish label Ganni and the US brand Tommy Hilfiger started their sales on October 24th. In comparison, last year they started on November 14th and November 6th respectively. Tommy Hilfiger even positioned its early sales as a “Holiday Head Start.” The company thus linked the activities in October with the Christmas campaigns.
US premium brands such as Banana Republic, Guess and J.Crew also launched holiday offers in late October and early November. In doing so, they adapted to the expected early shopping behavior. Despite the lead, communication continued to focus on novelties and Christmas capsules. In contrast, mass market retailers such as the US companies Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch relied more heavily on discount messages in the fall.
Definition of product categories and data drivers
In the product sector, accessories, particularly wallets and handbags, recorded some of the strongest year-on-year sales growth. They increased by 13 and ten percent respectively in both markets. Denim and outerwear also continue to rise. They recorded increases of 12 and 14 percent year-on-year.
Denim in particular is experiencing an upswing. Barrel-leg jeans doubled in the EU and grew by more than 200 percent in the US. Baggy jeans increased in popularity by 28 percent in the US and 30 percent in the EU. However, cargo pants are in sharp decline. Their share of the range fell by 50 percent in the USA and by 54 percent in the EU.
Retviews highlights that best-selling silhouettes like Spanish fashion chain Zara’s high-waisted barrel jeans often sell out and are restocked. This highlights their suitability for minimal or no discounts. Slow-moving items such as the ‘Millie Hi-Rise Cargo Jean’ from the Canadian brand Aritzia, on the other hand, show less stock movement before they are finally reduced. This signals a potential candidate for earlier or deeper discounts.
As consumer expectations evolve and discount periods lengthen, this precision becomes a valuable tool for retailers. “In the unpredictable retail landscape of 2025, characterized by cautious spending and intense price competition, brands will need to respond faster and more accurately than ever before,” Retviews said in its report.
The company concluded: “To protect margins and increase sales, retailers must identify which products are trending and which require discounts, and plan holiday discounts accordingly. Timing is everything today as brands begin promotions earlier each year. The real challenge is determining when and to what depth to discount. This is the only way to maximize performance on Black Friday.”
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