How to understand the election results? Why do surveys fail so much? The answer to these questions—and many others—lies in understanding how our brain works. The truth is that 95% of the decisions we make as human beings occur involuntarily, unconsciously and automatically.. In other words, it could be said that our brain decides before we are aware of it.
Why is this happening? According to Gerald Zaltman, a professor at Harvard Business School, the explanation is simple: intuition is fast, while rational thinking is slow. Our brain has two main objectives: to survive and to make efficient use of energy. Although it represents only 2% of the body weight, it consumes about 20% of the body’s total energy, and the neocortex—the rational part of the brain—can use up to half of that consumption.
Consequently, it seeks to function based on patterns and judgments that allow it to decide quickly, consuming the least amount of energy possible. The brain tends to decide quickly and economically, regardless of whether it is a decision related to politics, leadership or sales. Voters’ decisions are determined by emotions and expectations that they experience in the moment, rather than through rational arguments, great speeches or debates.
If people feel hope and believe that things can improve, decisions are oriented in their favor. If, on the other hand, distrust, frustration or – even worse – indignation towards a candidate or party predominates, decisions are directed against it. The more intense the emotion, the greater the force and momentum of the decision. Therefore, emotions such as anger, resentment or fear are decisive in any choice.
There are also biological mechanisms that operate in favor of survival, such as loss aversion. This phenomenon appears when a person perceives that something they have—or could have—is at risk. In that case, the brain activates an automatic response to avoid the potential loss, since it interprets it as a threat.
Surely we can remember the massive purchase of toilet paper or hand sanitizer during the pandemic. The same thing happens with the purchase of dollars when their value is rising. In both cases, it is not a rational decision, but a survival mechanism.
Returning to the political sphere, expectation plays a central role. If a person considers that an election result could cause them to lose something valuable, their survival instinct is activated. Many politicians appeal to rational discourse, but from neuroscience we know that It is not reason that guides our decisions, but emotions and expectations.
In this sense, it is important to consider that not all voters share the same emotions and expectations, but rather this occurs in a segmented manner. A useful way to understand these segments—which I often cover in my training and lectures—is to analyze them by generation.
For example, baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) tend to have more conservative expectations, focused on preserving what they have achieved. Their predominant emotional states oscillate between hope and resignation. On the other hand, centennials (born between 1997 and 2009) tend to have more ambitious expectations, typical of their life stage, and their emotions can vary between confidence, distrust and ambition.
Each generation shares a kind of collective mentality, with common values, experiences, beliefs, emotions and expectations. And these factors mobilize decisions much more than any political speech.
A question I often ask in my lectures is: “Could understanding how people decide be key to leading or selling?” And this also applies to the political sphere. Understanding how human beings decide is essential to influence, lead or inspire change.
*Carlos González is a coach, mentor & consultant.
by Carlos González
