Holstein Kiel: Descent ticked off, arrived in the 2nd league

By Florian Neuhauss

The “storks” fly again! The team of coach Marcel Rapp finished Karlsruher SC 3-0 last Sunday. Adrian Kapralik at the presentation of Alexander Bernhardsson, David Zec after a corner by John Tolkin and Phil Harres, in turn, according to the presentation of Bernhardsson – the first defeat of the defeat of the strongly started KSC was tough. And Kiel? Stumbled into the season with two defeats, celebrated the third victory in the youngest four games. The Holstein Stadium, occupied with 14,766 spectators.

The most important questions and answers to work between NDR and GSN.

The Schleswig-Holsteiners will go into the upcoming game with a wide chest: On Saturday (1 p.m./in the NDR LiveCenter), SV Elversberg will best be the next victory.

The relegation depression? Away. The anticipation of what may come in this second division season? It grows and grows. The data from Global Soccer Network (GSN) show how Rapp brought his team back on course – and also that the KSV could have a good say for the promotion this season.

Holstein Kiel dreamed briefly from the Bundesliga class maintenance …

It was clear to all Kielers that the first Bundesliga participation should only be short-lived when they celebrated the promotion in spring 2024. Especially since it was twice historical: never before a team from Schleswig-Holstein had been allowed to call itself Bundesliga Club.

And yet in the end it felt like a missed chance when the relegation was determined a year later. Due to the 3: 1 in Augsburg on the 32nd matchday, Kiel was suddenly only one point behind the relegation rank. But only a week and the 1-2 defeat against Freiburg later the hope was already there.

… and put a false start in the second division

And somehow it took a little time for the newly formed team – 15 entrances and 15 departures – to find their way around the 2nd league. After the 1-2 in Paderborn and the 0: 2 against promoted Arminia Bielefeld, the start of the season looked like the next nerve -wracking season could wait for Holstein.

Rapp reacts immediately – with success

But Rapp did not hesitate long-and modified his game system system (3-4-2-1). However, a tactical change was much more decisive: “The team defended more compactly and no longer acted on the offensive with the claim to control the game permanently, but increasingly rely on vertical transitions, clear depth runs and the game in switching situations,” says the analysis of GSN.

Significantly more passive, but much more effective

Curiously, since then, the Kielers have been significantly worse off in a variety of parameters. On average, the team has much less possession of the ball (44 instead of 57.5 percent), plays fewer passes (390 instead of 455), beats fewer flanks (6.25 instead of 17), sprints significantly less (-29 percent) and wins much less duels (91.25 instead of 106).

Kiel has increasingly understood what the 2nd league demands: physical presence, quick switching, defensive order and a certain efficiency in dealing with your own resources.

From the analysis of GSN

But: Holstein only collects an average of 0.5 goals per game (-75 percent), which is not least due to the successful tackling (+380 percent) and the ball wins in their own penalty area (+110 percent).

And on the other hand, the Kielers themselves get significantly more degrees in the penalty area of ​​the opponent (+65 percent), also increase their value in the “Expected Goals” (+73 percent to 1.66) and have come to a goal cut of 1.75 (+250 percent) since the switch.

Kiel deliberately releases the game control

In other words, Rapp said goodbye to want to control the game. Which would probably expect many from a relegated Bundesliga. For this he brought clarity into the game of his team. That now no longer tries to solve everything through flanks. The Schleswig-Holsteiners act significantly more variable and have apparently adapted to the requirements of the new, old league.

Harres and Bernhardsson as a game decision

A central role plays a center forward Harres and Bernhardsson, which Rapp has converted into a right rail player and made a deputy captain. The Münster Harres already shone with two goals and one template, its congenial offensive partner from Sweden with a goal and two templates.

The Schleswig-Holsteiners show their best seasonal performance against the previously unbeaten Baden-Württemberg and celebrate the first home success.

With Shuto Machino, the best goal scorer (11 goals/change to Gladbach) was under the departures after the descent. However, it is quite high to calculate Kiel Management that Harres (8) and Bernhardsson (7) managed to keep Harres (8).

Harres also shines with the ball on the ground (both goals with the right foot), but the 1.93-meter man particularly stands out with his header: 67 percent of his offensive air-show battles-this means second in the middle strikers.

“With technology, physique and tactical intelligence, Bernhardsson Kiel’s game over the outside,” the data analysis describes the Sweden. His dribbles, flanks and pass values ​​”are among the best in the league”. In addition, the defensive work should be emphasized in both Bernhardssion and Harres.

Kiel shines with strong defensive work, …

In the meantime, the ninth -placed Kielers are league tips in some areas. With an average of almost 64 ball conquests in your own half per game, you take first place as when catching passes (33) and the ball gains in the defensive third of the field (43.33). It is no coincidence that the opponents’ positions are not very concerning (0.17), have not yet conceded a counterattack and also have the lowest value for the “Expected Goals Against” (0.95).

… but still has big deficits

However, everything does not work for the Holsteiners. The robbery -like attacks and standards may be so dangerous. But: No team comes from the position attack so rarely (4.17), plays fewer attacks with more than five passes (1.0) and has a weak pass rate in the third of attack (57 percent).

In addition, there are signs that the Kielers are either not physically fit enough or the squad is not wide enough. With the number of sprints in the final quarter of an hour, they only take 15th place. On average, they only give a shot – and they have not yet shot a goal after the 76th minute.

How high can the “storks” fly in the end

Therefore, it is difficult to predict in which direction the Kiel journey is going on this season. The artificial intelligence of GSN has calculated their course. In this forecast, the KSV ends up with 54 points in sixth place in the table. It is clear that a lot can still change at this early stage. Especially since there is also a transfer period.

However, the view of this AI table is interesting. Especially since Kiel only separate three points from the ranks two and three, four from first place. The KSC is third behind Paderborn and Elversberg.

And maybe it is a good omen before the duel with the forecast champion on Saturday that with the KSC another top team of this table has just been clearly defeated.

The left-back left-back, which was exempted from the second division soccer team, had already completed a medical check at the Polish Club Katowitz, but then switched to Azerbaijan.

The 28-year-old played for six years with the “storks” and was one of the faces of the Bundesliga promotion in 2024.