GroenLinks-PvdA, D66 and ChistenUnie score best in the field of housing in their election plans for 2030. The VVD is the only major party to make significant cuts in government expenditure, as currently planned. All parties will significantly increase defense expenditure in the coming government’s term of office to meet the new NATO standard by 2035.
This is evident from the calculation Choices in Map of the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), which was published on Friday morning in the run-up to the elections on October 29. Ten parties are participating in the financial elaboration of the plans this year, which is two more (NSC and BBB) than in 2023. For example, PVV and SP are not participating.
Tightness on the housing market is one of the biggest problems of our time. All parties have submitted plans to do something about this, but the results differ considerably. The housing supply is increasing most at GL-PvdA, D66 and ChristenUnie. Partly because of this, government expenditure by those parties is increasing the most. In the plans of VVD, CDA, NSC and Volt, the housing supply will also increase faster than is currently the case, but less quickly.
D66 wants the government to spend almost 20 billion euros more in 2030 than the increase in government expenditure (30 billion) that is already planned for the next five years. For GL-PvdA this is 15 billion more than the increase already anticipated. ChristenUnie also scores well on housing, but the party’s plans do not lead to an additional increase in total expenditure.
Phasing out mortgage interest deduction
The CPB has also calculated what the phasing out of mortgage interest deduction will mean. GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, CDA, ChristenUnie and Volt all have plans for this, but are moving at different paces. The phasing out of the mortgage interest deduction dampens house price increases, but the extent to which depends on the pace at which this happens.
Included for the first time Choices in Map also an assessment by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, which examined the parties’ climate and nitrogen plans. In previous editions, the PBL reported on this separately and parties could choose whether they wanted to participate or not. The plans of GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, ChristenUnie and Volt score best when looking at climate and nitrogen emissions.
BBB and JA21 are doing less well in the area of climate than the policies already in place
BBB and JA21 are doing less well in the area of climate than the government policy already in place. The current plans achieve the climate goals for 2030 – a CO2reduction of 55 percent compared to 1990 – probably not achieved. Most parties focus on a mix of levies, subsidies and standards. In the field of nitrogen, GroenLinks-PvdA, D66 and the Christian Union are committed to limiting livestock numbers linked to the amount of land. The VVD, D66, the CDA and the Christian Union are making money available for voluntary quit schemes for farmers.
In the coming cabinet period, both expenditure and burdens will increase if policy remains unchanged. The VVD and JA21 are the only ones to dampen the increase in expenditure and burdens during the cabinet period, with 10 and 5 billion respectively. The VVD is reducing government spending on healthcare, international cooperation (development cooperation) and education, and is spending more on defense.
Almost all parties are putting a brake on the increase in healthcare expenditure. If policy remains unchanged, healthcare expenditure will increase (already 155 billion, it was reported CBS this week) in the coming cabinet period with 16 billion euros.
The VVD, the CDA, the BBB, the SGP and JA21 are taking measures to limit the arrival of asylum migrants.
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