Great uncertainty about the future of third-country nationals from Ukraine. What are they going to do after Monday?

For 2,900 refugees from Ukraine with a different nationality, the so-called third-country nationals, the temporary protection scheme that applies to refugees from Ukraine will expire on Monday. What are the consequences for the asylum chain and will this lead to extra pressure on Ter Apel? Eight questions about the latest chapter in the ongoing asylum crisis.

Who are we talking about?

It is about a group of third country nationals of 2900 people. They had a temporary Ukrainian residence permit and, like other Ukrainians, had to flee the Russian war violence. Most of them studied or worked in Ukraine: they had built a life.

In the Netherlands, they were initially given the same rights as refugees with a Ukrainian nationality. The third-country nationals fell under the same European directive. As a result, they were allowed to live in a shelter for Ukrainians and were given permission to work.

In the province of Groningen, the group consists of 120 third-country nationals. The Security Region cannot provide the latest figures for Drenthe, but a few weeks ago it was about 200.

Why should third-country nationals leave and Ukrainians be allowed to stay?

Outgoing State Secretary Eric van der Burg (asylum, VVD) decided last year to withdraw this temporary protection because, according to the government, third-country nationals can safely return to their country of birth. He also wanted to relieve the burden on municipal reception locations.

In addition, the favorable arrangement appeared to increase the influx of Ukrainians to the Netherlands in the summer of 2022. This gave rise to the suspicion that third-country nationals were abusing the scheme.

What does that mean for third-country nationals?

Third-country nationals are given a departure period of 28 days to leave the Netherlands or to apply for asylum. Within that period they can make use of a bed, bath and bread arrangement.

This means that after 4 September there will be two groups. One is that of people who are ‘in the picture’. These are the departers, who receive financial support to remigrate. About 570 people have registered for this with the Repatriation & Departure Service (DT&V).

In addition, 700 refugees are known to be continuing their asylum procedure. That group is already being transferred to available coa locations. One of these is the new azc on the Europaweg in Groningen.

The second group of people who apply for asylum after 4 September will end up in the ‘normal’ asylum process. They are not allowed to work during the first six months of the procedure, have to register in Ter Apel and will probably also be taken care of there.

What happens to the people who have not reported anything?

Due to the limited interest in the return scheme or in the asylum procedure, the government expects that by 4 September the largest group of third-country nationals will be staying illegally in the Netherlands.

According to the Salvation Army, this increases the risk of people becoming homeless and perhaps knocking on the door of the already “overcrowded homeless centers.” FEANTSA, the European Federation of National Organizations that work with homeless people, and its Dutch member Valente, also fear that people will disappear into illegality with the risk of abuse and inhumane situations, they say in a statement. “We fear that people will end up on the street and that municipalities will be confronted with a chaotic situation and extra pressure on services.”

Will that cause outdoor sleepers in Ter Apel?

For third-country nationals who still want to apply for asylum after 4 September, the COA, together with the IND, is working on a location in the country where this group will be temporarily accommodated. This location has not yet been found.

The COA itself does not expect that the extra influx will lead to more problems in the reception chain. This despite the fact that there are still several emergency reception locations, the existence of which is also uncertain. For example, the contracts for Zuidbroek and Assen expire within a month.

But why didn’t they apply for asylum sooner?

Third-country nationals have known for some time that their status is temporary. Still, many hold out hope that they can stay. They had often been living in Ukraine for years when the war broke out. They believe that all refugees from Ukraine deserve the same treatment.

Moreover, the Netherlands has shown that not everything is cast in concrete. Actually, this group should have left on March 4, which was postponed at the time. Four hundred third-country nationals also received a letter at the beginning of February stating that they could stay in the Netherlands for another year. That letter later turned out to be intended for refugees with a Ukrainian nationality, but it has caused a lot of confusion.

Don’t third-country nationals have the right to stay?

This is still being discussed legally. In March, doubts arose among various organizations about the legal basis for terminating the reception of third-country nationals. The IND, the Legal Aid Board and the Council for Refugees therefore instituted twelve trial proceedings in a pilot to request the judgment of the court.

At the beginning of August, the judge ruled in one of the cases that terminating temporary protection for third-country nationals is legally possible. On Wednesday, the court ruled in favor of the third-country nationals in three other cases. According to the court, the cabinet may only end the reception scheme for third-country nationals if the Council of the European Union has decided to do so. The Netherlands cannot independently deviate from this.

According to the Council for Refugees, there is little chance that the Council of State will be able to give a definite answer on 4 September about the legal tenability of the plan to end the reception. More rulings on similar cases are on the way, and the organization plans to continue litigating all the way to the Council of State. They therefore call on the government to extend the protection scheme again. The State Secretary has not complied with this; not even after the verdict.

Refugee Work thinks that legal ambiguity can lead to chaotic situations. “Third country nationals are aware that there is still a legal perspective to be allowed to stay in the Netherlands. We are afraid that some of them will therefore not cooperate in leaving the shelter,” the organization writes on its website.

What does this mean for municipalities?

The loss of the protection scheme puts municipalities and location managers in a difficult position: they must ensure that the refugee leaves the (municipal) reception. Rein Koopman, location manager of the Ukraine shelter in Oude Pekela, thinks there is a good chance that third-country nationals will end up illegally. “Ten third-country nationals are now staying with us. These include Moroccans, Pakistanis and an Indian man. In principle, they can safely return to their country of origin, but they do not do this because they are here to earn money. So I don’t think they’re going back anytime soon.”

Similar concerns were expressed by mayors in the Security Council on Tuesday. According to chairman Wouter Kolff, the cabinet must “at all times” prevent people from ending up illegally.

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