Gold remains in demand: US banks are forecasting further increases in 2026

• US investment banks see further upside potential for gold
• New record marks in sight
• Central bank purchases are likely to provide further impetus

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JPMorgan: Long-term bull market

According to JPMorgan Research, gold remains in a structural uptrend. After the price reached several record highs in 2025, the bank expects further potential. Chief commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva sees continued strong demand for gold as a “safe haven” amid increasing recession risks, trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

“For investors, we believe gold remains one of the optimal hedges against the unique combination of stagflation, recession, currency devaluation and U.S. political risks that markets will face in 2025 and 2026,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan.

JPMorgan is therefore forecasting a gold price of close to $4,000 per ounce for the second quarter of 2026. The main drivers are said to be purchases by central banks and investors: According to estimates, the central banks alone purchased around 900 tons of gold in 2025 – a trend that is expected to continue in 2026. In addition, the weaker US dollar and interest rate hopes are driving the attractiveness of the precious metal. According to JPMorgan, gold remains “an optimal hedge against stagflation, currency devaluation and political risks” for investors.

Morgan Stanley: Setbacks possible, but uptrend remains intact

Morgan Stanley is also sticking to a positive forecast and has raised its price target for 2026 to $4,400 per ounce. Despite short-term setbacks, such as the price collapse in October 2025, the bank sees gold as one of the “best-performing assets of the year.” The rally is supported by geopolitical uncertainties, continued central bank purchases, ETF inflows and a weaker US dollar.

Commodity strategist Amy Gower emphasizes that for the first time since the 1990s, gold makes up a larger share of central bank reserves than US Treasury bonds – a strong signal of confidence. “Investors watch gold not only as a hedge against inflation, but also as an indicator of developments from central bank policy to geopolitical risks,” explains the expert. However, there are risks from possible weak demand in the jewelry sector. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley Gold is one of the “top favorites” among raw materials.

Goldman Sachs: Demand from central banks continues to drive prices

Goldman Sachs Research also expects prices to rise – albeit more cautiously. Analysts led by Lina Thomas are forecasting a gold price of around $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by robust purchases by central banks and a looser monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.

The experts see the growing demand for gold as a structural trend, especially in emerging countries, where central banks are diversifying their reserves and increasing gold shares. “Our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight relative to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing their gold holdings as part of a broader diversification strategy,” said analyst Thomas. According to the World Gold Council, 43 percent of central banks surveyed plan to further increase their holdings – the highest level since 2018. At the same time, speculators are increasingly betting on rising prices: according to Goldman Sachs, net long positions on the COMEX are at a ten-year high.

Whether as inflation protection, geopolitical hedging or strategic reserve – gold will continue to be in demand in 2026, according to the major US investment banks. However, it remains to be seen whether there will be enough to set new records.

Editorial team finanzen.net

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