Gold price: Risk aversion continued to withdraw

By Jörg Bernhard

However, investors continue to hope for early interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve. In the meantime, the Fedwatch tool of the appointment exchange operator CME Group shows a probability of 89 percent that we will see at least two interest reductions by 25 basis points by the end of the year. A month ago, only a value of 32 percent was displayed here. According to media reports, US President Trump could already announce his candidate for the chair of the Federal Reserve in September or October – presumably someone who supports relaxed financial conditions. Meanwhile, FED boss Jerome Powell explained that the absence of new tariffs favored the disinflational trend and thus let scope for several interest reductions – provided that no aggressive trade measures are decided before July 9th. In addition, yesterday’s gross domestic product of the United States was revised down for the second quarter and is now showing a minus of 0.5 percent. However, this was compensated for by a decline in the initial applications to US unemployment aid to a five-week low and the strongest increase in the order incoming of long-lasting goods for eleven years. Now the market players are eagerly awaiting the PCE inflation report (2.30 p.m.) for further orientation.

On Friday morning, the gold price presented itself with declining notations. Until 8:00 a.m. (CEST), the most active future to gold (August) was reduced by $ 39.10 to $ 3,308.90.

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Crude oil: Markant weekly minus threatens

The oil price threatens current a weekly minus in the double -digit percentage range and thus the weakest weekly balance since March 2023 – triggered by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, the oil price is currently supported by the increased demand for fuel in the US travel season, which means that the raw oil bearing stocks have been falling to the lowest seasonal status in eleven years. A weaker US dollar also contributed to limiting the losses, as this makes oil as a dollar raw material cheaper for international buyers. The focus of the market players is now the further development of trade talks between the USA and China and the Opec meeting on July 6th.

On Friday morning, the oil price presented itself with attractive notations. By around 8:00 a.m. (CEST), the nearest WTI-Future was increased by $ 65.64 to $ 65.64, while his counterpart attracted $ 67.12 to Brent.

Editor finance.net