The oil price shock resulting from the Iran war has pushed the inflation rate in Germany towards the three percent mark. Goods and services were 2.9 percent more expensive in April than a year earlier, as the Federal Statistical Office calculated based on preliminary data. Inflation was last this high in January 2024; the last time the rate was above three percent was in December 2023 at 3.7 percent.
The war in the Middle East has made energy significantly more expensive in this country. Household energy and fuel cost a whopping 10.1 percent more in April than a year earlier. In March, energy in Germany had already become more expensive for the first time since December 2023, rising rapidly by 7.2 percent, and inflation rose overall to 2.7 percent. From March to April of the current year, consumer prices rose by a total of 0.6 percent, according to statisticians.
“In April, inflation only rose because of higher energy prices,” Commerzbank ordered
Many people limit themselves because of high prices
The higher the inflation rate, the less consumers can afford for one euro. In surveys, many people are already saying that they can hardly afford the running costs of daily life and that reserves have been used up.
In a Forsa survey commissioned by RTL/ntv, 58 percent of respondents said they had recently restricted themselves in everyday life. Young people under the age of 30 and people with lower incomes save particularly often. In the representative survey, 1,005 people were interviewed on April 24th and 27th, 2026.
What does the “tank discount” mean?
The federal government is trying to provide some relief: Taxes on diesel and gasoline will be reduced by around 17 cents gross per liter from May 1st to June 30th. The petroleum industry has announced that it will pass this on to drivers – some doubt this. Economists do not believe that this “fuel discount” will reduce fuel prices in the long term. In addition, it only benefits those who drive a vehicle with a combustion engine.
Economists expect the inflation rate to rise significantly in 2026
Even before the Iran war, economists expected that the inflation rate in Germany this year would be just above the two percent mark – similar to 2024 and 2025 with 2.2 percent each. But these forecasts have long since become a waste of time. Leading economic research institutes now expect the inflation rate to rise to an average of 2.8 percent this year and to 2.9 percent in 2027.
That would still be far below the record for reunified Germany of 6.9 percent inflation during the Ukraine war in 2022. But the price increases back then are still having an impact today, because many goods have become permanently more expensive.