Finland overcame this Thursday the final obstacle that remained to enter the NATO —the ratification by the Turkish Parliament, the last among the 30 members of the Alliance that was yet to take that step. The question now is under what government that adhesion will be consummated. Sundays are celebrated in the Nordic country Parliamentary election and there are three parties that are competing for first place: the Social Democrats of the Prime Minister sanna marinthe conservative opposition led by Peter Orpo and the extreme right of the real finns.
The polls place these three formations at around 20% of the voteswith a slight advantage for Kokoomus, the party of Orpo. In the previous elections, in 2019, no party exceeded that threshold, for the first time in the country’s history. social democrats and the extreme right were then in a practical tie, which was finally resolved by the slightest advantage in the count in favor of the party now led by Marin.
The fragmentation of then persists. But many things have changed in this country of barely 5.5 million inhabitants, with a 1,340-kilometre border with Russia, the longest among the partners of the European Union (EU). Marin was not the protagonist of this narrow Social Democratic victory four years ago, but the chosen one was her co-religionist and then party leader antti rinne. The current head of government came to office six months after that brief victory, following the resignation of Rinne, urged on by one of his four coalition partners, the centrists.
Entry into NATO
Thus, she became the youngest leader on the planet at the head of a democratic government – she was 34 years old at the time. She showed strength by facing a big first crisis overall, that of covid. But the acid test came with the start of the invasion of Ukrainein February 2022. Public opinion and the political establishment suddenly saw a danger in the line of military neutrality who for decades defended Finland, a country anxious until then to maintain a harmonious neighborhood with Russia. It fell to Marin to lead that turn. She did it twinned with Swedenat that time led by another young woman and social democrat, the head of the Government of the neighboring country, Magdalena Andersson.
Sweden and Finland jointly applied to join NATO. While Brussels, Germany, Polandthe set of Baltic countries they welcomed them, the same as USA, France either Spainthe Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoganpresented his objections, especially draconian towards Stockholm, a country that, according to Ankara, gives asylum to Kurdish terrorism and related organizations.
Nothing was as easy as it seemed. Not only because of the Turkish blockade, but also because the Swedish government with which she had twinned Marin changed sign. The September 2022 elections removed Andersson from power – despite the fact that he managed to defend first place for the Social Democrats. In its place came the center-right coalition led by the conservative ulf kristerssonwhich depends on external support from the extreme right Swedish.
Turn to the (ultra) right?
That could also be the constellation of the next Finnish government, if Marin does not achieve first place on Sunday or if, even defending it, he does not manage to organize a new alliance. The conservative Orpo does not rule out any potential partner among the main political formations in the fragmented Finnish landscape, including the extreme right now led by Riika Purra. The social democracy of Marin does reject any collaboration with the binder of the xenophobic and eurosceptic vote.
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Marin is undoubtedly the most charismatic face in Finnish politics. Not only does he represent the rejuvenation of Nordic social democracy, but he has also known how to respond with aplomb both to the real crises that Finland is facing and to the virtual bullying to which she was subjected when a clip in which she appeared dancing with some friends, at a private party, went viral. She became a global talk of the social networkswhile she defended the right to private entertainment.
But the great achievement that Finland has achieved in completing the ratification of all NATO members – while Sweden is still waiting – is not only due to its good management. Erdogan’s main interlocutor in the final stretch has been the president of the country, the liberal Sauli Niinisto. It is difficult to guess what the negotiation between the Turkish leader and Marin would have been like. The fact is that, in the final stretch until the appointment with the polls, Finland’s long-awaited entry into NATO depends only on completing the consequent formalities, while Marin is not assured of continuity as head of government of the new partner, destined to reinforce the northern flank of the Atlantic Alliance.