A ‘harsh reality’, as Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) called it on Sunday in the talk show Buitenhof. The United States and Russia will negotiate in the short term about the termination of the war in Ukraine, without participation in Europe. The reason, Brekelmans said, is that European countries have not yet made any commitments about their contribution to a peace force after a possible ceasefire. “The Americans are very businesslike and transactional in that regard,” said Brekelmans. “They say: if we don’t know what we have seen in a military way in Europe, then you don’t have a place at the table either.”
The fact that European countries did not have a concrete answer for Washington does not mean that they have not been thinking for longer about a military presence in Ukraine. At the beginning of last year, French President Macron suggested that Europe could armed troops in Ukraine. After the election victory of Trump, This is how AP reported this weekendpoliticians from different countries (including the Netherlands) spoke in the Brussels residence of NATO-Secretary-General Mark Rutte with President Zensky about a European force that should guarantee the safety of Ukraine after ending the fighting.
There is no concrete plan yet. Commander of the Armed Forces (CDS) Onno Eichelsheim spoke on Thursday during a visit to Estonia against NRC From a ‘robust’ safety forces that must be strong enough to keep Putin from new escalation. Minister Brekelmans spoke on Sunday in Buitenhof of ‘robust security guarantees’, without getting concrete about what that should mean.
At least 30,000 soldiers
However, there is little discussion about the most important building blocks of such a ‘robust’ peace force for Ukraine. On land, a mobile, heavily armed force of at least an army corps (30,000 soldiers) is needed, with tanks, armored combat vehicles and artillery. European anti-aircraft systems and combat aircraft must protect Ukrainian airspace against the ongoing Russian drone and rocket attacks. The free access by the sea (essential for Ukrainian grain export) will have to be monitored by a narrow part of naval ships.
The majority of strength, said Eichelsheim last Thursday, will have to be supplied by large European countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland. However, what the peace force will look like exactly depends on the outcome of the negotiations. The chance that Russia immediately agrees with heavily armed NATO troops in Ukraine seems nil. It was already suggested that African or South American countries could also make a contribution-an idea that is being viewed with great suspicion in the European headquarters.
One thing is already certain: the Netherlands will not be able to make more than a small contribution. Defense is already participating in various current NATO missions. Dutch F-35s monitor the airspace of Estonia, the Zr.Ms. Tromp patrols in the Baltic Sea to combat Russian sabotage. The Netherlands has been supplying several hundred soldiers for NATOs for many years Enhanced Forward Presence In Lithuania. Units in the Netherlands are part of the defense of the NATO territory and cannot simply be sent to Ukraine: “We not only have to protect Ukraine, but also our own territory,” said Brekelmans Sunday.
Dutch F35s
It is therefore obvious that the Netherlands supplies F-35s-modern hunters that have only few European partners. The use of the Royal Netherlands Navy is also an obvious choice, just like sending Dutch anti-aircraft weather: a Patriot battery, for example, or a platoon with stinger missiles for the short distance. The Netherlands has a professional genius and high -quality medical care. An infantry company (about a hundred soldiers) may also be scraped together. “The Netherlands will play a modest role,” said Onno Eichelsheim on Thursday.
Before the time comes, an important condition must still be met. The US may have announced that they would not want to participate in the peace force, they will have to give the guarantee that they want to intervene if Russia resumes hostilities. “You know that the Russians will test us, they have always done that so far,” Brekelmans explained on Sunday. “We have to put escalation dominance on that: every time the Russians try something, we can add a little extra. In the end we also need the Americans for that. “
Without American security guarantees, every European peace force is unbelievable
Defense expert Tim Sweijs of the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) is even more firm. A safety power without American stick behind the door is a “dangerous concept,” says Sweijs: “European troops are opposed to a armed forces who are willing to accept a thousand dead and injured a day to achieve the goal. Without American security guarantees, every European peace force is unbelievable. “
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Whether the Trump government is willing to give those guarantees is uncertain-and that, while the risks for Europe with a possible cease-fire are only increasing. European top soldiers have been warning for more than a year that Russia can start a threat to NATO itself within a few years. If the weapons are silent in Ukraine, Putin has hands free for new military adventures – for example in the Baltic area. Minister Brekelmans is aware of the risks. “We are celebrating freedom for eighty years this year,” said the minister in Buitenhof. “If we want it to be a hundred years, this is a very crucial moment.”